The origins of futurology

The term "futurology" was coined in the mid-1940s by German professor Osip Flechtheim, and as a scientific discipline it emerged by the 1960s, thanks to the efforts of Herman Kahn of the RAND Corporation and a number of other scientists. However, people were interested in the future long before that, and the first predictions that have survived to this day were made back in ancient times.

In Antiquity (8th century BC - V AD) and in modern times (XVII-XIX centuries), the main genre of “futurology” was utopias in the spirit of Plato’s “Republic” or Thomas More’s “Utopia”. They represented projects of ideal societies, rather divorced from reality and not tied to a specific place or time. Utopias did not show the way to achieve the desired result. It seemed to their authors that it was enough to describe the ideal future for it to create itself according to this description.

In the interval between Antiquity and Modern times, people wrote about the future within the Christian tradition - in the genre of prophecies and revelations that were dystopian in nature and often foreshadowed the end of the world. A striking example of prophecies is the predictions of Nostradamus, the main theme of which is the political future of Europe, up to the beginning of the astrological era of Saturn (2242), and revelations - the Apocalypse - the second title of the last book of the New Testament, “The Revelation of John the Theologian,” which, among other things, describes numerous cataclysms, which will occur before the second coming of Christ. Therefore, “apocalypse” is often used as a synonym for the end of the world or a catastrophe on a planetary scale.

However, experience gradually accumulated in the failure to implement the stated

disasters. Transcendental prediction of the future through revelation gives such amorphous predictions that they can be tied to any event, but cannot be turned into a specific forecast.

Thus, the method of revelation was found to be ineffective in foreseeing the future. However, like utopias, it still has its supporters. Usually the idea of ​​critical analysis of sources, as well as other important components of the scientific method, is alien to them, while they are characterized by higher suggestibility and faith in authority.

The history of futurology

The origin of futurology is associated with the emergence of the idea of ​​state economic and political planning, primarily in the Soviet Union in the 1920s.

The emergence of futurology as a separate discipline occurred after the Second World War, when the Soviet Union, European countries and the newly independent countries of Africa and Asia began large-scale projects for economic restoration and development. To do this, they needed methods for studying the future, setting social goals, and economic and scientific planning. In the United States, futurology arose from the successful application of practical methods and tools of systems analysis and planning in the army during the war. To this day, futurologists in the United States are less inclined to make broad predictions related to the future of all humanity and the planet.

In the late 1960s, a critical mass of futurists formed in the world and an international dialogue began about the long-term goals of humanity. In 1972, the Club of Rome's report "The Limits to Growth" came to public attention, warning of the consequences of population growth, increased resource use and economic growth. International organizations of futurists were created - the World Futures Studies Federation and the World Future Society.

Futurology began with forecasting, an attempt to predict, anticipate the future, identifying trends and extrapolating them, or using statistical methods. But major energy futurological forecasts made using similar methods failed to predict the 1973 oil crisis.

Because of this serious failure, futurists moved from forecasting to creating scenarios that take into account, as they say, “multivariate futures”, and also began to consider not only technological aspects, but also, for example, broader information about markets. The expansion of the scope of application of foresight methods (in areas such as education, medicine, urbanization, demography, law enforcement) has led to the need to take into account social aspects, for example, the impact of technology on society.

Of course, not all authors set out to imagine the possible future of humanity. But if we consider the authors of “hard SF”, such as Jules Verne, H.G. Wells, Olaf Stapledon, Alexander Belyaev, Genrikh Altov (Altshuller), Stanislav Lem, etc., then the number of new ideas and the number of fulfilled predictions will be very high. In the 60s, Genrikh Altov (the creator of TRIZ and a science fiction writer himself) published the results of the predictions of science fiction writers: J. Verne: 108 forecasts, of which 10 were incorrect. G. Wells: out of 86 predictions, 77 turned out to be correct. A. Belyaev: only 3 errors out of 50 prognostic fantasies.

Science fiction writers, knowing about trends, foresee precisely qualitative leaps in development and therefore more often than not futurologists are right.

At one time, people came out of literally every crevice in the media space with their own forecasts. Futurologists are people who predict the future, talk about how we will live in many years and what we are generally striving for. Few can say why such forecasts are needed. Some people even doubt the correctness of their actions. In this material I will talk about why I do not trust such “specialists” and why I consider their work, if not quackery, then at least a very dubious activity.

The time will come when everything will change. But no one knows how it will be.

The forecasts of futurists are based on statistics, the forecast development of industries and areas of activity, as well as the personal feelings of the “scientist”. The influence of each of these factors on the final forecast depends on each individual futurologist. Only he himself decides what to place more emphasis on when making a decision. It is the lack of uniform standards that makes the work of modern predictors too abstract and subjective.

In addition to the listed factors, the forecast can also be influenced by surveys of specialists in different industries and the search for analogies of the development of the situation in the past. But we all know that the turns of history, although similar, each time occur on a completely different level.

Futurologists are deceiving us

In the old days, when people believed in everything, popular unrest could always be used for the benefit of someone, so prophets and soothsayers gave predictions that were beneficial to them or those who asked them about it.

We were also predicted to have a future full of humanoid robots. You don't need to be a genius here

Now there is almost no such thing, since we all know the essence of the phenomena and will not believe anyone who says that it will fall on Moscow. In order for such a person to be believed, he will need to provide significantly more evidence than before.

Another question is that futurologists often make predictions regarding a period of time that will be in 100-200 or more years. Now let’s answer the next question... Does anyone seriously expect to check whether what some futurist promised us 200 years ago will come true?

This is the meaning of such distant predictions. We will believe what they tell us, but whether this actually happens is no longer important. The forecaster received his attention, money and influence now. Even for 40-50 years, no one will remember the forecasts. That is why the price of a forecast for a futurologist and a drunken “balabologist” will be approximately the same.

As a result, futurologists simply compete in their forecasts. In the best case, even if he does not set out to profit from this, he simply becomes a dreamer who discusses his theories with other similar dreamers. That's all…

Is it possible to predict the future?

It is impossible to predict the future. Only those who are responsible for its creation can do this. For some, these are scientists, for others, higher powers in which they believe. Those who make forecasts can only analyze and identify probabilities.

But often all these forecasts boil down to the fact that events will develop as they did before. For example, one of the predictions for the end of the world boils down to the fact that the temperature rises by 0.5 degrees every 10 years. These smart guys simply estimated the temperature at which glaciers would melt, divided it by the indicated increase in temperature and got more than two thousand years, after which we will all feel bad.

Michio Kaku is one of the most famous futurologists

As usual, none of us will check this. And the most important thing is that in this particular forecast they do not take deviations into account at all. The temperature cannot always rise evenly. In such a long time we can leave the planet. An ice age might start, or something else might happen. The main thing is that the forecast flew into space and they began to discuss it. And how can you believe such absurdity if you analyze it yourself?

Futurists' forecasts do not come true

There are futurologists who make forecasts for the near future. For example, for 15-20 years. It’s difficult to call them truly futurists, but this is where things get interesting.

If you are so smart, then why are you so poor? — Warren Buffett

Have you ever seen a story of accumulation of huge capital that began with a forecast for the future? Personally, I don't. I am sure that most of you will also answer in the negative. There are people who work hard and have instincts. There are those who are lucky. There are even those who guessed that, for example, Apple with Steve Jobs would take off, but nothing more. The most important thing is that these are not the people who fantasize about the future in their cramped offices.

Isn't this evidence that they shouldn't be trusted? In my opinion, the example given speaks most eloquently about this.

Futurists think too narrowly

Often those who proudly call themselves futurologists think too narrowly. Have you noticed? I mean those cases when they talk about how we will conquer space, fly to other galaxies, or defeat all diseases.

Here you don’t need to have a great gift of a fortuneteller. Everyone already understands that this will happen. I just want to say: “Predict something not as the development of something that already exists, but as the beginning of a completely new trend that will definitely happen.”

The firefighters arrived, said there was a fire, and left.

When Jules Verne wrote about traveling to the moon, it was truly new. If he had written about ships that sailed three times faster than modern ones at that time, or about stronger horses, it would have looked like the chatter of modern experts on the future. It turns out that a science fiction writer was more useful than professional futurologists.

One of the options for cities of the future according to futurologists

A simple example. In the middle of the last century, futurologists, in the wake of the craze for space and success in it, promised us widespread space tourism. He's gone. But they did not predict computers and many other things that are commonplace in our time.

How to check a futurologist's forecast?

I think I've given four reasons that explain very well why I don't trust futurists. You may not agree with me, but if you have your own reasons, indicate them in the comments or in our Telegram chat.

If you set a goal, of course, you can check the words of futurologists and understand whether they were worth believing. But no one needs it. I don’t think anyone would want to write down all the predictions and then, 40 years later, take them out and start bombarding them with revelations. Even if this someone personally asks the author of the forecast a question, he will simply answer that he was mistaken, but then it will no longer matter.

Therefore, you should not take seriously the predictions of “experts” from futurology. Let's just listen to them, smile, dream and forget. Treat it like science fiction. How else can one relate to forecasts, half of which predict complete extinction, and the second - absolute utopia and unconditional happiness for everyone?

Prediction is the business of prophets, clairvoyants and futurologists, but not writers. The writer's job is to lie - Ursula Le Guin, intro to "The Left Hand of Darkness"

The difference between science fiction writers and futurists is that the former simply invent and dream, while the latter try to substantiate their, often too fantastic, predictions and thereby increase their significance.

Even if he gives the most perfectly verified forecast, in which everything is just perfect, something can always happen. Because of the rash actions of one air defense specialist, the Third World War began and that’s it, the forecast for... Well, you understand. And the further into the future for which the forecast is made, the greater the number of such potential interventions. Just like in the movie “The Butterfly Effect”.

Psychologies: Is it possible to explain in clear and simple language what futurological thinking is?

Yes, sure. It's like a story, only about the future. At school, during history lessons, we were often told phrases like: “A people who do not remember their history are doomed to repeat mistakes.” But today we have the opportunity to predict the future a little more accurately than simply saying: “Nothing will change, everything will be as it was.” Thanks to the development of social sciences - sociology, political science, economics, psychology - and management sciences, today we better understand how society develops, we better understand the laws of this development.

Let me give you an example: it was found that most companies begin to die after 10-20 years of their existence. Any company in any country does not last long. Nowadays there are practically no organizations that have existed for a very long time. At the same time, cities, if we consider them also as a certain structure, organization, exist for a very long time, and at the same time do not perish.

But long-lived companies still exist. It turns out that this simply requires certain conditions?

There are only a few such companies. And there are practically no such ones that have existed for at least a hundred years. At the same time, for some reason, cities exist for a very long time - Rome, Paris, Berlin... Rome, after the fall of the Roman Empire, seemingly died: everyone left the city, the population was zero, there was no food supply... but then people still returned. The larger the cities, the more efficient they are. This means we can predict what will happen to parts of society. This is part of the basis on which futurology stands.

The first reason why futurology is important: we need to somehow navigate our future

For an ordinary person, futurology is also important because now there are no such precise landmarks as there were in the past, for example, two hundred years ago. Then every country had a dominant culture, a set of values ​​and specially trained people to whom you could come and say: “My father, tell me, how should I live my life?” And he answered: “From Monday to Saturday you do this, on Sunday you do this. Here are all the instructions for you." This trend persisted for a very long time; it was still relevant in the middle of the 20th century.

But then what Friedrich Nietzsche called “the death of God” happened: in modern culture, especially in Western culture, this unambiguous landmark disappeared. Traditional institutions have been preserved, but a person has a huge choice: you can go for advice from an Orthodox priest, a Buddhist, you don’t have to go to anyone, you can read popular science articles on a topic of interest. There is no longer any certainty.

What should a modern person focus on?

This is the first reason why futurology is important: we need to somehow navigate the future. Before, everything was clear: the same thing will happen to you as happened to your father, grandfather, great-grandfather. Everyone was a blacksmith, and you will be a blacksmith. And your last name is also Kuznetsov. But today we understand that everything is changing, and not always for the better.

To develop such an understanding, we need tools, and it is advisable that we master them at school. This process has already begun: there are futurological projects and congresses in schools. In Kazan, for example, the University of Talents is engaged in the education, training, and coordination of gifted children. During the two-day session, specialists together with the children come up with what they would like to do in life. Moreover, there are also very young children from elementary school. At this age, the child begins to form an image of what he wants to do in the future.

Goals should be set not for a month or a year, as most people do, but for 10, 20, 30 years in advance

In this regard, classical futurology fulfills the task: children know about robots, flights to Mars, even about cryonics. I gave a lecture in Yekaterinburg about the professions of the future, and after the lecture the children had to choose what they wanted to do. 80% chose professions in one way or another related to immortality and revival. And that's okay. Previously, we could only offer children the explanation “Your dog is now in heaven with your great-grandmother,” but now there are alternative options that are more useful.

What other reasons make this science important?

The second reason can be formulated as follows: the ability to predict life. Nowadays the anti-aging field is very actively developing, scientists are working on life extension. If you know that you can live a hundred years, how will you use this information? What if you have a thousand years?

It doesn’t matter what social level a person is on, how much money or power he has. You need to decide what to do next, how to plan your life and activities. We can change our profession at any point in our lives, as long as we are not near death. We can comprehend the world that surrounds us, define a goal, and understand what skills and resources are missing to achieve it. In this case, goals should be set not for a month or a year, as most people do, but for 10, 20, 30 years in advance. And tell yourself: “I want to do this and I will try until I succeed.”

Are there special techniques with which a person can predict success or failure in endeavors?

Certainly. The first point: you need to develop a serious approach to work. This does not mean that you need to choose a fashionable or prestigious profession. You need to understand what your career path will allow you to achieve in twenty years. Nowadays people very rarely choose this approach. A similar level of conscious and responsible approach can be observed, for example, in astronauts who study for years, must constantly monitor their physical fitness and health, undergo selection programs, etc. But this approach could be adopted by everyone, not just astronauts.

Any person who wants to engage in the technologies of the future can go to study - on their own or through correspondence courses, without even having to quit their job. And after some time - for example, after three years - you can already choose a new profession and begin to develop in it.

The second point: you need to think about global forecasting, and here it is quite difficult to build the future on your own - you need to have a lot of information, which is not exactly hidden, but not particularly disseminated. This is information about how society is governed, in which direction it is moving, how complex systems generally work, for example, cities - what we talked about at the very beginning. It has to be collected bit by bit, and much still depends on how the society in which a person lives relates to this or that idea.

For example, in most countries people have a very conservative idea of ​​the life trajectory and its finitude. Please note: in almost all Hollywood films and cartoons, immortal characters are negative. Anyone who strives for immortality and prolongation of life is bad. This can be seen even in the example of Star Wars. Of course, there are films that contradict this idea, but in general it feels as if some secret censorship committee forbids talking about the fact that people can live long and live well.

If we want to be responsible for our future, we need to take as much information about it as possible

When a person thinks about how to develop his career, where he wants to live and what to do, this is also part of futurology. It is important for everyone to understand whether we want to take responsibility for our future. You can, after all, not take it, but rely on it, for example, on pension funds; another question is whether it is worth hoping. You don't have to be an advanced analyst to make forecasts. If we want to be responsible for our future, we need to take as much information about it as possible. For some it is ten articles in scientific journals, for others it is a radio broadcast, for others it is one book on futurology.

It is important to identify reference points for yourself - to understand what result you want to achieve in 10, 20, 30 years. If there is such a plan, a person will rely on it. This does not mean that everything will work out on its own, but at least it will provide the context in which to act. Today we have access to almost any knowledge. You can develop yourself if you understand in which direction you want to move. You can learn to approach your future rationally.

Is this taught in your courses?

Yes, we, for example, have a short but intense course on applied rationality: we teach people to develop rational skills and apply them in both work and personal life. This helps to correctly assess what is happening and identify behavioral options. People who try to figure this out on their own usually come up with some popular methods of planning and time management, install an application on their phone, and check the boxes in it. But it doesn't work that simple. Several levels of planning and analysis are needed. And this is necessary and useful for any person.

You need at least a little independence and a desire to make informed decisions, and not rely on someone else’s advice

The classic and most interesting part in applied rationality is Bayes' theorem, the theorem of conditional probability. For example, a person receives a test result for some disease. But the result can be false positive and false negative. To calculate the probability of getting this or that result, you must first understand what the probability of such a disease is for a particular person. If, for example, this probability is 1 in 100,000, then the probability of a false positive result is much higher.

But most people don't think like that, they haven't been taught to. And they taught that homeopathy works and “it helped my neighbor, so it should do the same for me.” Without knowing how to calculate probabilities, a person suffers losses.

How difficult is it to master? Do you have to be a mathematician or a physicist, or is rational thinking accessible to everyone?

We have a course on applied rationality, which is designed for 3-4 lessons, one lesson per week. There are face-to-face groups, they are aimed at completely different people and are suitable for the “ordinary” person on the street. After completing the course, a person receives rational thinking skills and practical results. You need to be able to work with any task. But for this you need at least a little independence and a desire to make informed decisions, and not rely on someone else’s advice.

It turns out that this is a skill to ask yourself the right questions and look for the right information?

Yes. And based on this information, build a predictive model: “If I do this, then this will happen.” Then a person is taught to work with preferences - after all, there are judgments about the world, and there are preferences. You need to be able to check your judgments about the world and understand how they are connected. And preferences are the ability to model different options for the future in your head and understand what you like. For example, when a child graduates from school and does not know who he wants to be, this means that he does not know how to work with his preferences.

Many adults also do not know how to work with preferences.

Yes, because they were not taught this. They don’t know what they want and use formulaic solutions: “I want a bigger salary, I want a vacation at sea, I want to buy this, I want to learn something.” But at the same time, the person does not understand what kind of life he would like to live in the next five years. Many people cannot dream about something because they do not understand how to work with a library of possible desires. And the best thing they can do is come across a list of “One Hundred Things You Must Do in Life” on some blog and try to fulfill all the points: skydive, go to Las Vegas, but this is not the wisest an approach. Our time resource is limited, which means that if we want to live meaningfully, we need to choose fifteen of these hundred points. And take your choice seriously.

Recent studies have shown that more than half of people believe that they are engaged in meaningless work. Clerks, officials, low-level managers who fulfill various bureaucratic requirements do not understand the existing alternative, do not understand what to do with the feeling of meaninglessness. They find themselves in a kind of trap. And to get out of it, you need to be able to ask yourself basic questions.

How can you learn to ask such basic questions?

The starting point can be a description of the past, present and future of our world. There must be some basic model that describes what seems most important and interesting to a person. Let’s say for some it’s nature. And this person begins to read a book about ecology, about the effect of pesticides and chemicals. He will read it and say: “I want to save our world from such problems.” For another person it will be a book about education and science, for a third it will be about space. But in any case there must be some kind of frame.

There are forecasts according to which many professions that were recently considered in demand will lose relevance in the future

And then a person begins to compare: he imagines the world in which he would like to live, understands what he likes and what he doesn’t. And then you can set practical goals; they identify issues and solutions. And these questions and solutions should arise in your head today. The same example is with space, into which many dream of flying. You can just dream about it, or you can figure out how the space industry as a whole is developing, what ways there are to someday end up on a spaceship. It will also matter what country a person lives in and where he works. Having outlined several points, a person will create a frame for himself and will be able to evaluate his success in moving towards the goal.

For me, for example, the most important and interesting issues are issues of immortality and strengthening of intelligence, as well as omnipotence, building a utopia, security, and singularity. But this is a fairly broad framework; it requires developed futurological skills.

And if you set a more “everyday” framework, for example, about raising children, education, career, what advice can you give to people who do not know about futurology?

In fact, these topics are interconnected. There are already forecasts according to which many professions that were recently considered in demand will lose relevance in the future. For example, a lawyer. Therefore, if parents are thinking about what to prepare their child for, they need to study the professions of the future. You can simply enter this phrase into a search engine, you can look at the Skolkovo Atlas of Professions.

Futurology implies a high level of desire to be responsible for one’s life, not only now, in the moment, but also in the future.

We need to understand that those professions to which we are accustomed will either no longer be relevant for our children, or the paths to these professions will be different. For example, agriculture is not going anywhere, but what needs to be studied in this area is different from what was studied 50 or 20 years ago.

Now there are a huge number of intensive training methods, which can begin almost from the age of 1-2 years. You need to know what technologies are available and how to use them. Simply giving your child a tablet or smartphone is a bad idea. It’s more interesting and productive to use some kind of devices with biofeedback and experiment with neural interfaces.

There used to be a popular idea that the baby in the womb should be allowed to listen to classical music. And now you can use direct magnetic stimulation of the brain, substances that during pregnancy have a positive effect on the future intelligence of the child - making it not just “normal”, but “above average”. You can and should read about this in open sources; this is not secret information.

Futurology implies a high level of desire to be responsible for one’s own life, not only now, in the moment, but also in the future. And this is what you can learn - to see yourself in the future, to understand what needs to be done for this future now. This is responsibility for yourself, your family and your life.

About the expert

Ideologist and one of the founders of the Russian transhumanist movement, futurist. More details on the website.

Futurologist

Futurology(from lat. Futurum- future and Greek Λόγος - doctrine) - the science of predicting the future, including by extrapolating existing technological, economic or social trends or attempting to predict future trends.

The term “futurology” was coined by sociologist Ossip K. Flechtheim in 1943, in a letter to Aldous Huxley, who enthusiastically adopted and coined it.

All philosophers, prophets and religious thinkers since ancient times have tried to predict the future: Plato, Aristotle, biblical prophets, Isaiah, John the Theologian, Nostradamus, etc.

The first attempts at scientific forecasts date back to the end of the 19th century: “Germany in 2000” (1891) by Georg Ehrmann, “Future War and Its Economic Consequences” (1897) by Ivan Stanislavovich Bliokh, “Sketch of the Political and Economic Organization of a Future Society” (1899) by Gustave de Molinari, Anticipations (1901) by H. G. Wells. John Haldane's book Daedalus, or Science and the Future (1924) was influential in the 1920s and 30s.

In the USSR, it was customary to separate “bourgeois” futurology and “scientific” (Marxist) prognostication.

Extrapolation is just one of many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, the Delphi method, brainstorming, morphology, and others). Futurology also involves viewing such issues as normative or desirable futures, but its real contribution is the combination of extrapolation methods and normative inquiry to explore the best strategies.

Futurologist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future by supernatural means, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios. (For example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurists, but those who predict the relative wealth of nations a generation from now are.)

Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological trends) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then began research for a new book. More recently, they have started consulting groups or made money from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt and his ex-wife Patricia Aburdine are three prime examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.

Futurologists have a number of similarities with science fiction authors, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even write futurological articles (for example, Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislaw Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in the introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that prophecy is the job of prophets, clairvoyants and futurologists, but not writers: “the job of a writer is to lie.”

Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology to predict the distant future of the entire universe, usually predicting its heat death or "great collapse".

Futurology, although sometimes based on science, cannot follow the scientific method, since it cannot be verified by any methods other than expectation of the future. However, futurologists can (and do) use many scientific methods.

Futurists have a very mixed reputation and history of success. For obvious reasons, they often extrapolate current technological and social trends and believe that they will develop at the same pace in the future, but technological progress in reality has its own paths and rates of development. For example, many futurists in the 1950s believed that space tourism would be widespread today, but they ignored the capabilities of ubiquitous cheap computers. On the other hand, many of the forecasts were accurate.

Projected futures (as of 2003) include both environmental catastrophe, a utopian future in which the poorest people live in conditions that would today be considered rich and comfortable, the transformation of humanity into a post-human form of life, and the destruction of all life on Earth in a nanotechnological disaster.

Famous futurists

• Bell, Daniel
• Bestuzhev-Lada, Igor Vasilievich
• Kahn, Herman
• Clark, Arthur
• Lem, Stanislav
• Naisbitt, John
• Kurzweil Raymond
• Servan-Schreiber, Jean-Jacques
• Toffler, Alvin
• Touraine, Alain
• Fedorov, Nikolai Fedorovich
• Eburdine, Patricia

• Futurological projects

  • Venus Project
  • Wild future
  • Futurological forecast of the future - A. Zharov \ Future. Evolution continues
  • Futurological essay - Vadim Madgazin. Humanity 2.0
  • List of futurology resources.

  Futurology is a science

  Modern scientists face several challenges. They need to comprehensively study the phenomenon and describe its development over time. Futurology is a science that predicts social development based on cause-and-effect relationships and established laws.

  
  As they say, this is a prediction of the future. The subject of the study of futurology is very distant horizons. A specialist studies history, delves into the traditions of peoples and tries to understand where the social process is heading. In fact, a futurologist is an analyst who needs to connect the achievements of several related branches of science. He must have a broad outlook and a serious knowledge base. The process of development of society is influenced by seemingly such little things as habits formed in childhood, common ways of interaction between individuals, images imposed by the media, and the like. That is, a futurologist is a specialist, so to speak, of a wide profile, possessing encyclopedic knowledge.

  Subject of study

  The question of where humanity is going has occupied philosophers at all times. Modern experts have not discovered anything new here. But they have improved the methodology for studying the future. Do not be surprised. Once you understand who a futurist is, you will see for yourself that this analyst does not exactly make forecasts. It is better to say right away that an analysis is being carried out of the underlying changes, their results and the likelihood of influencing processes. The name of this science comes from the English word futurum (future in translation). It is based on a scrupulous study of social trends affecting the state of countries and peoples. In order to influence events, it is necessary to understand them, to know the laws of behavior of people and groups. This is what futurology does. It is based on the developments of mathematicians and sociologists, and takes into account the achievements of economists, physicists, biologists and other fields. All this is only to understand how the situation will develop in one particular country and what it will give to humanity as a whole.

  

  About the “butterfly effect”

  It is impossible to understand who a futurist is without explaining some of the nuances. The fact is that direct, previously used analytics is now considered obsolete. Hegel's dialectic is said to have ceased to work in the last century. Processes in society, of course, are influenced by simple and well-known laws, but not to the fullest extent. And, by the way, futurologists are only partially interested in them. They pay more attention to “dormant” or unmanifest factors. These are certain processes or phenomena that are just maturing, not yet influencing events. They are called "slumbering gnomes." These factors can be activated spontaneously or under the influence of certain forces at any moment and affect all of humanity. There is a well-known description of how the flapping of a butterfly's wings in America, for example, leads to a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. This, of course, is just a model. But it perfectly characterizes how the predictions of futurologists are formed. It is necessary to take into account a lot of nuances unknown to the general public, trace their relationships and understand what the processes of interaction will lead to.

  Profession futurist

  Before we consider the fruits of this branch of knowledge, it is necessary to describe the people involved in forecasting and shaping the future. Who does this in real life? There are quite a lot of practicing futurologists in the West. We will talk about some of them below. But not every scientist with sufficient knowledge will take on such a complex task. A specialist must have creative thinking, excellent imagination, and the ability to form unusual ideas on the edge of the possible. In addition, they have to be separated from outright fiction. Futurists, by the way, often draw their brilliant projects from literature. They make full use of the fruits of human genius, both past and present. Lastly, in order to advance in this profession, you must be able to rise above the ordinary, go beyond generally accepted rules. And this, believe me, is more difficult than mastering science.

  

  How the forecast is formed

  Let's give a diagram of the work of a futurologist. Let’s say right away that it will be primitive, but it will give an understanding of the activities of this type of specialist. There is a lot of talk these days about the Third World War. Naturally, the topic did not pass the attention of specialists. How to understand what exactly might happen? To do this, you need to collect information about:

  • likely participants;
  • currently available potential;
  • trends in new developments;
  • traditions of peoples and political systems;
  • expected resources;
  • personalities of opponents' leaders.

  The above is a common base used by the military. The futurologist also takes into account an unknown factor. For our topic, this could be, for example, the unexpected death of the leader of a country over which potential opponents are fighting for influence. Or an uprising in any backward state where an important resource (factory, mining enterprise) is located. Less obvious factors, visible to the average person from the media, are also taken into account. Having collected all possible ones, the specialist begins to analyze them, playing out the situations. The conclusions, of course, will be multiple, limited by the theory of probability.

  

  Ian Pearson

  The most famous futurists regularly shock the public with their ideas. Many of them, by the way, use politics to attract the electorate. Thus, the Englishman Ian Pearson predicted at the beginning of the century that people would be able to experience the pleasures of love in virtual space. The idea seemed incredible back then, but now it doesn’t shock anyone. He is also known for his prediction that after a certain time a person will be able to transfer consciousness to a computer. By the way, programmers are seriously working in this direction, as the media claim.

  Predictions about solving the food problem

  Many scientists are working on this serious issue. The population of the planets is growing exponentially, and resources are decreasing exponentially. Futurologists suggested paying attention to the world ocean, which has not yet been properly explored. Water, inhabited by rich flora and fauna, occupies most of the planet, but humans do not really use it. Ian Pearson predicts that science will develop methods and related technologies that will make it possible to extract food from the ocean. This means not only fishing, but also the processing of many types of algae, probably their industrial cultivation.

  
  
  

  About World War III

  People's imaginations are excited by the predictions of futurologists. It will be interesting to know how our descendants will live, unless, of course, we all burn up in a nuclear fire. Perhaps the most popular ideas of futurologists concern the likelihood of a Third World War. They cannot say with certainty whether it will happen or not. It depends on the politicians and the military. But what it could be, futurologists talk a lot and with pleasure. In their opinion, human participation in the upcoming battles will be minimal. The fighters will control technical devices fighting among themselves. The military will be safe, which cannot be said about civilians. The flames of nuclear fires will fall on the heads of the ordinary population and completely turn their world upside down. To reassure the reader, even futurologists consider the likelihood of a major war to be minimal.

  

  Just a few names

  It is not possible to talk about all the ideas and research of futurologists in a short article. Some of their work is already being exploited by politicians in the ongoing information war. We will only name a few names so that the reader has an idea of ​​the personalities who created our present from the distant and not so distant past. The following futurologists are considered the most famous in the expert community: Huntington, Toffler, Fukuyama. Surely you have heard these names too. The activities of these people are fascinating not so much in the content of their forecasts as in the genius of their approaches to analyzing events. They, of course, need to be read far from being retold. Have you yourself tried to make a probabilistic forecast of the distant or near future? Share in the comments, let's discuss it together.

  History of the development of futurology

  Since ancient times, seers, religious thinkers and philosophers have tried to predict the future. Back in the Middle Ages, the great thinkers Tommaso Campanella and Thomas More tried to predict the future social order.

  In the 40s of the twentieth century, the German scientist Osip Flecht-Heim introduced the term “futurology”. Flecht-Heim argued that futurology should study the future of all social phenomena. The heyday of this science occurred in the second half of the twentieth century. Many societies were created, international associations were founded - the Club of Rome (1968), the World Federation for Future Research (1974).

  Nowadays, there are organizations and scientific institutions where they predict the problems of modern humanity.

  What does a futurologist do?

  There are four main methods:

  • Statistical - includes probabilistic, correlation, regression analysis and extrapolation.
  • A method of matching the future with previously existing concepts to predict future events.
  • Determining people's point of view based on surveys (questionnaires).
  • A method of forecasting and planning the future based on group work methods.

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  Futurologists are trying to predict the tragedies and achievements of humanity in a generation. These do not include people with super abilities. There are authors who are known only as futurologists. They are sometimes associated with science fiction writers. These days they give public talks and create advisory groups. Famous representatives of this class: John Naisbitt, Patricia Aburdin, Alvin Toffler.

  Futurology is a science with a controversial reputation. Very often, scientists predict fantastic developments in technology. Thus, in the 50s of the 20th century, futurologists believed in the possibility of space tourism in the 21st century, but could not foresee such an amount of accessible computer equipment. However, many predictions came true and were accurate. The science of futurology will exist for a long time, because we all want to know what awaits us in the future.

There is such a rare profession - futurologist. This is a specialist who is able to predict the future. People believe that this is only possible with the help of clairvoyance or fortune telling cards. A futurologist is not a palmist or any other specialist adventurer. The specialty is quite serious, and the predictions of such an analyst are trustworthy. Let's figure out who is called a futurologist, what these people do, and why their words are worthy of attention.

Futurology is a science

Modern scientists face several challenges. They need to comprehensively study the phenomenon and describe its development over time. Futurology is a science that predicts social development based on cause-and-effect relationships and established laws. Agree, this is a prediction of the future. The subject of the study of futurology is very distant horizons. A specialist studies history, delves into the traditions of peoples and tries to understand where the social process is heading. In fact, a futurologist is an analyst who needs to connect the achievements of several related branches of science. He must have a broad outlook and a serious knowledge base. The process of development of society is influenced by seemingly such little things as habits formed in childhood, common ways of interaction between individuals, images imposed by the media, and the like. That is, a futurologist is a specialist, so to speak, of a wide profile, possessing encyclopedic knowledge.

Subject of study

The question of where humanity is going has occupied philosophers at all times. Modern experts have not discovered anything new here. But they have improved the methodology for studying the future. Do not be surprised. Once you understand who a futurist is, you will see for yourself that this analyst does not exactly make forecasts. It is better to say right away that an analysis is being carried out of the underlying changes, their results and the likelihood of influencing processes. The name of this science comes from the English word futurum (future in translation). It is based on a scrupulous study of social trends affecting the state of countries and peoples. In order to influence events, it is necessary to understand them, to know the laws of behavior of people and groups. This is what futurology does. It is based on the developments of mathematicians and sociologists, and takes into account the achievements of economists, physicists, biologists and other fields. All this is only to understand how the situation will develop in one particular country and what it will give to humanity as a whole.

About the "butterfly effect"

It is impossible to understand who a futurist is without explaining some of the nuances. The fact is that direct, previously used analytics is now considered obsolete. as they say, it stopped working in the last century. Processes in society, of course, are influenced by simple and well-known laws, but not to the fullest extent. And, by the way, futurologists are only partially interested in them. They pay more attention to “dormant” or unmanifest factors. These are certain processes or phenomena that are just maturing, not yet influencing events. They are called "slumbering gnomes." These factors can be activated spontaneously or under the influence of certain forces at any moment and affect all of humanity. There is a well-known description of how the flapping of a butterfly's wings in America, for example, leads to a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. This, of course, is just a model. But it perfectly characterizes how the predictions of futurologists are formed. It is necessary to take into account a lot of nuances unknown to the general public, trace their relationships and understand what the processes of interaction will lead to.

Profession futurist

Before we consider the fruits of this branch of knowledge, it is necessary to describe the people involved in forecasting and shaping the future. Who does this in real life? There are quite a lot of practicing futurologists in the West. We will talk about some of them below. But not every scientist with sufficient knowledge will take on such a complex task. A specialist must have creative thinking, excellent imagination, and the ability to form unusual ideas on the edge of the possible. In addition, they have to be separated from outright fiction. Futurists, by the way, often draw their brilliant projects from literature. They make full use of the fruits of human genius, both past and present. Lastly, in order to advance in this profession, you must be able to rise above the ordinary, go beyond generally accepted rules. And this, believe me, is more difficult than mastering science.

How the forecast is formed

Let's give a diagram of the work of a futurologist. Let’s say right away that it will be primitive, but it will give an understanding of the activities of this type of specialist. There is a lot of talk these days about the Third World War. Naturally, the topic did not pass the attention of specialists. How to understand what exactly might happen? To do this, you need to collect information about:

• likely participants;
• currently available potential;
• trends in new developments;
• traditions of peoples and political systems;
• expected resources;
• personalities of opponents' leaders.

The above is a common base used by the military. The futurologist also takes into account an unknown factor. For our topic, this could be, for example, the unexpected death of the leader of a country over which potential opponents are fighting for influence. Or an uprising in any backward state where an important resource (factory, mining enterprise) is located. Less obvious factors, visible to the average person from the media, are also taken into account. Having collected all possible ones, the specialist begins to analyze them, playing out the situations. The conclusions, of course, will be multiple, limited by the theory of probability.

Ian Pearson

The most famous futurists regularly shock the public with their ideas. Many of them, by the way, use politics to attract the electorate. Thus, the Englishman Ian Pearson predicted at the beginning of the century that people would be able to experience the pleasures of love in virtual space. The idea seemed incredible back then, but now it doesn’t shock anyone. He is also known for his prediction that after a certain time a person will be able to transfer consciousness to a computer. By the way, programmers are seriously working in this direction, as the media claim.

Predictions about solving the food problem

Many scientists are working on this serious issue. The population of the planets is growing and resources are decreasing exponentially. Futurologists suggested paying attention to the world ocean, which has not yet been properly explored. Water, inhabited by rich flora and fauna, occupies most of the planet, but humans do not really use it. Ian Pearson predicts that science will develop methods and related technologies that will make it possible to extract food from the ocean. This means not only fishing, but also the processing of many types of algae, probably their industrial cultivation.

About World War III

People's imaginations are excited by the predictions of futurologists. It will be interesting to know how our descendants will live, unless, of course, we all burn up in a nuclear fire. Perhaps the most popular ideas of futurologists concern the likelihood of a Third World War. They cannot say with certainty whether it will happen or not. It depends on the politicians and the military. But what it could be, futurologists talk a lot and with pleasure. In their opinion, human participation in the upcoming battles will be minimal. The fighters will control technical devices fighting among themselves. The military will be safe, which cannot be said about civilians. The flames of nuclear fires will fall on the heads of the ordinary population and completely turn their world upside down. To reassure the reader, even futurologists consider the likelihood of a major war to be minimal.

Just a few names

It is not possible to talk about all the ideas and research of futurologists in a short article. Some of their work is already being exploited by politicians in the ongoing information war. We will only name a few names so that the reader has an idea of ​​the personalities who created our present from the distant and not so distant past. The following futurologists are considered the most famous in the expert community: Huntington, Toffler, Fukuyama. Surely you have heard these names too. The activities of these people are fascinating not so much in the content of their forecasts as in the genius of their approaches to analyzing events. They, of course, need to be read far from being retold. Have you yourself tried to make a probabilistic forecast of the distant or near future? Share in the comments, let's discuss it together.