Course work on discipline

"Sectoral and regional aspects in entrepreneurship"

On the topic "Method for Factor Analysis"

Performed: Syrusina O.

5 Course, SEF, full-time

Checked: Charyev R. M.

associate Professor Department of Economics

and management

Moscow 2008.

Introduction

In today's economic conditions, the enterprise is forced to independently determine the prospect of its development. A successful decision of pressing economic problems, of course, depends on the development of the theory of activity analysis, allowing to determine the effectiveness of the economic activity of the enterprise, identify the patterns of changes in the main results of its activities.

One of the most important tasks of the financial analysis of any economic phenomenon is "... detection of factors, the level and changes of which have a decisive effect on the formation and change in the level of the phenomenon considered as effective with respect to these factors."

The magnitude of the generalizing indicator of the structural divisions and the entire production formation depends on a large number of factors operating either in a certain sequence, or at the same time, multidirectionally and with different power. This dependence may have a different character: probabilistic, in which the influence of one value for the change of another may have a possible (probabilistic) character;
or determined, meaning the dependence of the effective indicator from factors: each value of the factor corresponds to one single value of the effective indicator. Each productive indicator depends on numerous factors. The more details are considered the influence of factors on the magnitude of the indicator, the more accurate the results of the analysis and assessment of the quality of the decision. In some situations, without a deep and comprehensive study of the direct influence of factors, it is impossible to make informed conclusions about the results of the company's activities.

The purpose of my course work is a detailed consideration of the species, tasks and stages of factor analysis, its purpose and the relevance of use.

Before you begin to talk about one of the types of financial analysis - factor analysis, I will remind you that such financial analysis and what is his goal. The financial analysis It is a method for evaluating the financial condition and efficiency of the economic entity based on the study of the dependence and dynamics of financial statements.

Financial analysis pursues several purposes: assessing the financial position; identifying changes in financial condition in a space-time section; identifying the main factors that caused changes in financial condition; The forecast of the main trends in financial condition.

As you know, there are the following main types of financial analysis:

· Horizontal analysis;

· Vertical analysis;

· Trend analysis;

· The method of financial coefficients;

· comparative analysis;

· factor analysis.

Factor analysis - Section of multidimensional statistical analysis, combining methods for estimating the dimension of a set of observed variables by studying the structure of covariance or correlation matrices. In other words, the task of the method is the transition from the real large number of signs or reasons for determining the observed variability to a small number of the most important variables (factors) with minimal loss of information. The method arose and was originally developed in the tasks of psychology and anthropology (border 19 and 20 centuries), but now its application is much wider.

Basic Financial Analysis Models

Each type of financial analysis is based on the use of any model that gives you the opportunity to assess and analyze the dynamics of the main indicators of the enterprise. Three main types of models are distinguished: descriptive, predicative and regulatory.

Descriptive models Also known as descriptive models. They are basic to assess the financial condition of the enterprise. These include: Building a system of reporting balances, representing the financial statements in various analytical cuts, a vertical and horizontal reporting analysis, a system of analytical coefficients, analytical notes for reporting. All these models are based on the use of accounting information.

Based on vertical Analysis There is a different presentation of accounting reporting - in the form of relative values \u200b\u200bcharacterizing the structure of generalizing final indicators. The obligatory element of the analysis is the dynamic series of these quantities, which allows to monitor and predict structural shifts in the composition of economic funds and sources of their coating.

Horizontal analysis Allows you to identify the trends in certain articles or their groups that are part of the accounting reporting. This analysis is based on the calculation of the basic growth rates of the balance sheets and the income statement.

System of analytical coefficients - The main element of the analysis of the financial condition used by various groups of users: managers, analysts, shareholders, investors, lenders, etc. There are dozens of such indicators divided into several groups in the main directions of financial analysis:

· Liquidity indicators;

· Financial stability indicators;

· Indicators of business activity;

· Profitability indicators.

Predicative models - It is a predictive model. They are used to predict the income of the enterprise and its future financial state. The most common of them are: calculation of the point of critical sales, building forecast financial reports, models of dynamic analysis (rigidly deterministic factor models and regression models), situational analysis models.

Regulatory models. Models of this type allow you to compare the actual results of enterprises with expected, calculated on the budget. These models are used mainly in domestic financial analysis. Their essence is reduced to the establishment of standards for each item of the costs of technological processes, types of products, responsibility centers, etc. And to the analysis of actual data deviations from these standards. The analysis is largely based on the use of rigidly deterministic factor models.

As we see, modeling and analysis of factor models occupy an important place in the financial analysis methodology. Consider this aspect more.

Factor analysis, its types and tasks.

The functioning of any socio-economic system (to which the existing enterprise relates) in the context of the complex interaction of the complex of internal and external factors. Factor - This is the cause, driving force of any process or phenomenon, defining its character or one of the main features.

Factor analysis - Methods of complex and systemic study and measurement of the effects of factors on the value of the resulting indicators, section of multidimensional statistical analysis, which combines methods for estimating the dimension of a set of observed variables. In other words, the task of the method is the transition from the real large number of signs or the reasons for determining the observed variability to a small number of the most important variables (factors) with a minimum loss of information (similar in fact, but not according to the mathematical apparatus, component analysis, canonical analysis, etc. ). The method arose and was originally developed in the tasks of psychology and anthropology (border 19 and 20 centuries), but now its application is much wider. The assessment procedure in consists of two stages: estimates of the factor structure - the number of factors needed to explain the correlation between values \u200b\u200band factor loads, and then estimates of the factors themselves based on the results of observation. Briefly speaking under factor analysis It is understood as the method of integrated and systemic study and measurement of the effects of factors on the value of the effective indicators.

Appointment of factor analysis

Factor Analysis - Definition effects of factors The result is one of the strongest methodological solutions in the analysis of the economic activities of companies for making decisions. For executives - Additional argumentAdditional "vision angle".

Features of the application of factor analysis

As you know, you can analyze everything to infinity. It is advisable at the first stage to realize the analysis of deviations, and where it is necessary and justified - to apply the factor method of analysis. In many cases, simple analysis by deviations are enough to understand that the deflection "critical" and when it does not necessarily know the degree of its influence.

The main tasks of factor analysis.

1. Selection of factors defining the investigative indicators.

2. Classification and systematization of factors in order to ensure a comprehensive and systematic approach to the study of their impact on the results of economic activities.

3. Definition of the form of the relationship between factors and effective indicators.

4. Modeling the relationship between factors and effective indicators.

5. Calculation of the influence of factors and assessing the role of each of them in changing the effective indicator.

6. Working with a factor model. Factor analysis technique.

However, in practice, the pactor analysis is rarely applied due to several reasons:
1) The implementation of this method requires some effort and a specific tool (software product);
2) Companies have other "eternal" priorities.
Even better if the factor method of analyzing "embedded" into the financial model, and not abstract app.

In the general case, you can allocate the following the main stages of factor analysis :

1. Statement of analysis.

2. Selection of factors defining the investigative indicators under study.

3. Classification and systematization of factors in order to ensure a comprehensive and systematic approach to the study of their impact on the results of economic activities.

4. Definition of the form of the relationship between factors and effective indicator.

5. Modeling the relationship between productive and factor indicators.

6. Calculation of the influence of factors and the assessment of the role of each of them in the change in the value of the effective indicator.

7. Working with a factor model (practical use of economic processes).

Selection of factors for analysisone of the indicator is carried out on the basis of theoretical and practical knowledge in a particular industry. It usually proceeds from the principle: the greater complex of factors is investigated, the more accurate the results of the analysis. At the same time, it is necessary to keep in mind that if this complex of factors is considered as a mechanical amount, without taking into account their interaction, without the allocation of the main defining, the conclusions may be erroneous. In the analysis of economic activities (AHD), the interconnected study of the influence of factors on the magnitude of the results is achieved through their systematization, which is one of the main methodological issues of this science.

An important methodological question in factor analysis is definition of the form of addiction Between factors and efficient indicators: it is functional or stochastic, direct or reverse, straight or curvilinear. Here is theoretical and practical experience, as well as methods of comparing parallel and dynamic series, analytical groups of source information, graphic, etc.

Simulation of economic indicators Also is a complex problem in factor analysis, which requires special knowledge and skills.

Calculation of the influence of factors - Chief methodological aspect in AHD. To determine the effect of factors, the final indicators use many methods that will be considered below.

The last stage of factor analysis - practical use of a factor model To count the reserves of the effective indicator, for planning and forecasting its value when changing the situation.

Classification and systematization of factors in the analysis of economic activities.

The factor in economic analysis is called active forces that cause positive or negative changes in the state of the object and in the indicators of it reflecting. The concept of "factor" is applied in economic analysis in 2 values:

The condition of the economic operation;

The reason for changing the state of the object.

Factors are the reasons for the results of economic and financial activities. The identification and quantitative measurement of the detection of individual factors to change the results of the economic and financial activity of the enterprise is one of the most important tasks of economic analysis. The influence of factors is reflected in different ways to change the resulting indicators of economic activities. To understand the reasons for changing the studied phenomena, it is more accurate to appreciate the place and the role of each factor in the formation of the value of the resulting indicators will allow the classification of factors. The analysis under study can be classified by different features.

The classification of factors is the distribution of them by groups depending on the general features. It allows you to deeper the reasons for changing the studied phenomena, it is more accurate to appreciate the place and role of each factor in the formation of the value of the effective indicators.

Classification of factors in economic analysis

1. Extensive and intense

2. constantly and temporarily valid

3. Basic and secondary (Bang holders). It is customary to use the concept of rank (order) of the factor.

By nature, factors are divided into natural, socio-economic and production and economic.

Natural factors have a great influence on the results of activities in agriculture, in forestry and other industries. Accounting for their influence makes it possible to more accurately assess the results of the work of business entities.

Socio-economic factors include housing conditions for workers, organizing improvement work at enterprises with harmful production, the overall level of personnel training, etc. They contribute to the more complete use of enterprise's production resources and improve its efficiency.

Production and economic factors determine the completeness and efficiency of the use of enterprise production resources and the final results of its activities.

According to the degree of impact on the results of economic activity, factors are divided into basic and minor. Basically include factors that have a decisive impact on the productive indicator. The secondary are those who do not have a decisive impact on the results of economic activity in the current conditions. It should be noted that, depending on the circumstances, the same factor may be the main, and secondary. The ability to highlight the main factors from all the factors ensures the correctness of the conclusions on the results of the analysis.

Factors share on internal and externalDepending on whether the activities of this enterprise affect them or not. When analyzing, the focus is on the internal factors to which the enterprise can influence.

Factors are divided by objective, independent of the will and desires of people, and subjectivesubject to influence of activities of legal entities and individuals.

According to the degree of prevalence, factors are divided into common and specific. General factors operate in all sectors of the economy. Specific factors are valid within a separate industry or a particular enterprise.

In the course of the organization of the organization, alone factors have an impact on the studied indicator continuously throughout the entire time. Such factors are called permanent. Factors, the impact of which manifests itself periodically, are called variables (This is, for example, the introduction of new technology, new types of products).

Of great importance for assessing the activities of enterprises is the division of factors by the nature of their action on intensive and extensive. Extensive are factors that are associated with a change in quantitative, and not the qualitative characteristics of the functioning of the enterprise. As an example, it is possible to increase product production by increasing the number of workers. Intensive factors characterize the quality side of the production process. An example is an increase in production production by increasing the level of productivity.

Most of the factors studied in their composition are complex, consist of several elements. However, there are also those that do not launch composite parts. In this regard, factors are divided into complex (complex) and simple (element). An example of a complex factor is labor productivity, and a simple number of working days in the reporting period.

In terms of the level of coziness (hierarchy), the factors of the first, second, third and subsequent levels of submission are distinguished. TO factors of the first level These are those that directly affect the productive indicator. Factors affecting the effective indicator indirectly, with the help of the first level factors, are called factors of the second level etc.

It is clear that when studying the impact on the work of an enterprise of any group of factors, it is necessary to streamline them, that is, carry out the analysis, taking into account their internal and external ties, interaction and coinlaughter. This is achieved by systematization. Systematization is the placement of studied phenomena or objects in a certain order with the identification of their relationship and subordination.

The systematization of factors in the analysis of economic activity is due to a systematic approach in the analysis of economic activities, and means placing the factors studied in a certain order with identifying their relationship and subordination. One method of systematizing factors is the creation of deterministic factor systems, which means to represent the studied phenomenon in the form of an algebraic amount of a private or work of several factors that determine its value and are in functional dependence.

Creature factor systems It is one of the ways of such systematization of factors. Consider the concept of a factor system.

Factor systems

All phenomena and processes of economic activities of enterprises are in interdependence. Communication of economic phenomena - This is a joint change in two or more phenomena. Among the many forms of natural links, the causal and investigative (deterministic) is played, at which one phenomenon generates another.

In the economic activity of the enterprise, some phenomena are directly related to each other, others - indirectly. For example, factors such as the number of workers and the level of productivity of their labor have direct impact on the value of gross products. Many other factors indirectly affect this indicator.

In addition, each phenomenon can be considered as a cause and as a result. For example, labor productivity can be considered, on the one hand, as the cause of changes in production, the level of its cost, and on the other - as a result of changing the degree of mechanization and automation of production, improving the organization of labor, etc.

The quantitative characteristic of interrelated phenomena is carried out using indicators. Indicators characterizing the cause are called factor (independent); Indicators characterizing the consequence are called productive (dependent). The combination of factor and effective signs related to the causal relationship is called factor system.

Modeling A phenomenon is the construction of a mathematical expression of an existing dependence. Modeling is one of the most important methods of scientific knowledge. There are two types of dependencies studied in the process of factor analysis: functional and stochastic.

Communication is called functional, or rigidly deterministic if each value of a factor corresponds to a completely definite inconsistency value of an effective feature.

The relationship is called stochastic (probabilistic), if each value of a factor of the sign corresponds to a plurality of values \u200b\u200bof the productive feature, i.e., a certain statistical distribution.

Model The factor system is a mathematical formula, expressing real relations between the analyzed phenomena. In general, it can be presented like this:

where is the resulting sign;

Factor signs.

Thus, each productive indicator depends on numerous and varied factors. At the heart of economic analysis and its section - factor analysis - Launch, evaluation and prediction of the effects of factors on changing the effective indicator. The more detailed the dependence of the effective indicator from certain factors, the more accurate the results of the analysis and the assessment of the quality of the work of enterprises. Without a deep and comprehensive study of factors, it is impossible to make informed conclusions about the results of activities, identify production reserves, justify plans and management decisions.

Types of factor analysis

Depending on the type of factor model distinguish two main types of factor analysis - Determined and stochastic.

it is a methodology for studying the influence of factors whose relationship is functional in nature, that is, when the productive indicator of the factor model is presented as a product, private or algebraic amount of factors.

This type of factor analysis is most common, since, being quite easy to use (compared to stochastic analysis), it allows you to realize the logic of the action of the main factors of the company's development, quantitatively assess their influence, to understand what factors and in what proportion is possible and appropriate to change to increase Production efficiency.

Deterministic factor analysis It has a sufficiently rigid sequence of performed procedures:

· Building an economically informed deterministic factor model;

· Selection of factor analysis and preparation of conditions for its implementation;

· Implementation of countable procedures for analyzing the model;

Basic methods of deterministic factor analysis

· One of the most important methodological methodologies in AHD is to determine the magnitude of the influence of individual factors on the increase in the resultant indicators. In deterministic factor analysis (DFA), the following methods are used: detecting isolated influence of factors, chain substitution, absolute differences, relative differences, proportional division, integral, logarithm, etc.

· The first three ways are based on the elimination method. Elimination means to eliminate, reject, eliminate the impact of all factors on the value of the effective indicator, except one. This method comes from the fact that all factors change independently of each other: first changes one, and all others remain unchanged, then two, then three, etc., with the rest of the rest. This allows you to determine the influence of each factor on the value of the indicator under study separately.

Stochastic analysis It is a methodology for studying factors whose relationship with an effective figure in contrast to the functional is incomplete, probabilistic (correlation). The essence of the stochastic method is to measure the effect of stochastic dependencies with uncertain and approximate factors. The stochastic method is advisable to apply for economic research with incomplete (probabilistic) correlation: for example, for marketing tasks. If, with a functional (full) dependence with a change in the argument, a corresponding function change always occurs, then with a correlation connection, the change in the argument can give several functions of the function, depending on the combination of other factors that define this indicator. For example, labor productivity at one and the same level of stock models may be unequal at various enterprises. It depends on the optimality of a combination of other factors affecting this indicator.

Stochastic modeling is to a certain extent supplement and deepening deterministic factor analysis. In factor analysis, these models are used in three main reasons:

· It is necessary to study the influence of factors for which it is impossible to build a rigidly deterministic factor model (for example, the level of financial leverage);

· It is necessary to study the influence of complex factors that cannot be combined in the same rigidly deterministic model;

· It is necessary to study the influence of complex factors that cannot be expressed by one quantitative indicator (for example, the level of scientific and technological progress).

Unlike a rigidly deterministic stochastic approach for implementation requires a number of prerequisites:

a) the presence of a totality;

b) sufficient observation volume;

c) the accident and independence of observations;

d) homogeneity;

e) the distribution of signs close to normal;

(e) The presence of a special mathematical apparatus.

The construction of a stochastic model is carried out in several stages:

· Qualitative analysis (setting the purpose of the analysis, determination of the aggregate, determination of the result and factor signs, the choice of the period for which analysis is analyzed, the choice of the method of analysis);

· Pre-analysis of the simulated aggregate (verification of the uniformity of the aggregate, the elimination of abnormal observations, the refinement of the required sampling, the establishment of the laws of distribution of the studied indicators);

· Building a stochastic (regression) model (clarification of the list of factors, the calculation of estimates of the parameters of the regression equation, brute force of competing variants of models);

· Assessment of the adequacy of the model (verification of the statistical materiality of the equation in general and its individual parameters, checking the compliance of the formal properties of estimates of the tasks of the study);

· Economic interpretation and practical use of the model (determination of the spatial-temporal stability of the constructed dependency, assessing the practical properties of the model).

In addition to division on deterministic and stochastic, the following types of factor analysis distinguish:

o direct and reverse;

o single-stage and multistage;

o static and dynamic;

o Retrospective and promising (forecast).

For direct factor analysisthe study is conducted by a deductive way - from common to private. Reverse factor analysisexercises a study with causal relationships with a way of logical induction - from private, individual factors to generalizing.

Factor analysis may be single-stage and multistage. The first type is used to study the factors of only one level (one step) of subordination without their detail to components. For example, . In case of multi-stage factor analysis, details of factors are carried out. a.and b. For composite elements in order to study their behavior. Detailing factors can continue further. In this case, the influence of factors of various levels of coziness is studied.

It is also necessary to distinguish staticand dynamicfactor analysis. The first species applies when studying the effects of factors on the resultant indicators on the appropriate date. Another species is a methodology for studying causal relationships in dynamics.

And finally, factor analysis can be retrospective which studies the causes of the increase in the resulting indicators in past periods, and promisingwhich explores the behavior of factors and the resultant indicators in the future.

Characteristics of the Multifactor Model Dupont

Developments in the field of factor analysis, which are conducted since the beginning of the 20th century, are of great importance for expanding the possibilities of using analytical coefficients for intra-renam analysis and management.

First of all, this refers to the development of a factor analysis scheme proposed by Dupont System of Analysis in 1919. By this time, rather widespread indicators of sales profitability and assets turnover were obtained. However, these indicators were used by themselves, without coating with production factors. In the model of the company DUPON, for the first time, several indicators were linked together and are given in the form of a triangular structure, in the top of which there is a profitability coefficient of aggregate capital of ROA as a basic indicator characterizing the return received from the funds invested in the company's activities, and at the base two factor indicators - profitability Sales NPM and resource status TAT.

The basis of this model was laid rigidly deterministic dependence.

where - net profit;

The amount of assets of the organization;

- (production volume) revenue from sales.

The initial representation of the DUPON model is presented in Figure 1:

Figure 1. DUPON model diagram.

In theoretical terms, Dupont specialists were not innovators; They used the original idea of \u200b\u200binterrelated indicators, made for the first time by Alfred Marshall and published in 1892 in the book "Elements of the Industry Economy". Nevertheless, their merit is obvious, since previously these ideas were not applied in practice.

In the future, this model was deployed to a modified factor model represented in the form of a tree structure, at the top of which there is an indicator of equity profitability (ROE), and at the base - features characterizing the factors of the manufacturing and financial activities of the enterprise. The main difference between these models is more fractional separation of factors and changes in priorities regarding the effective indicator. It must be said that the models of factor analysis proposed by Dupont specialists remained unclaimed, and only recently they began to pay attention.

The mathematical representation of the modified DuPont model has the form:

where is the profitability of equity;

PP.- net profit;

BUT - the amount of assets of the organization;

BP - (production volume) revenue from sales.

SC. - own capital of the organization.

From the presented model, it can be seen that the profitability of equity depends on three factors: profitability of sales, the turnover of assets and the structure of advanced capital. The significance of the selected factors is due to the fact that in a certain sense generalize all parties to the financial and economic activity of the enterprise, its statics and dynamics, in particular accounting reporting: the first factor summarizes the form No. 2 "Profit and Loss Report", the second - the balance of the balance, the third - Passive balance.

Now it is characterized by each of the main indicators included in the DuPont model.

Profitability of equity.

The profitability of equity is calculated by the formula:

where the value of own funds at the beginning and at the end of the period.

In the practice of analysis, many indicators of the efficiency of the enterprise are applied. The profitability indicator of equity capital is chosen because it is the most important for shareholders of the company. He characterizes the profit that owners receive from the ruble invested in the enterprise. This coefficient takes into account such important parameters as interest payments for credit and income tax.

Outpravability of assets (resource statement).

The formula for calculating the indicator has the form:

where BP - revenue from sales for the estimated period;

A NP., A KP.

This indicator can be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, the turnover of assets reflects how many times the period turns around the capital invested in the assets of the enterprise, i.e., evaluates the intensity of the use of all assets, regardless of the sources of their education. On the other hand, the resource report shows how many rubles of revenue enterprise has from the ruble embedded in assets. The growth of this indicator indicates an increase in the efficiency of their use.

Profitability sales.

Sales profitability is also one of the most important indicators of the company's performance. It is calculated as:

where revenue from the sale of products,

net profit of the enterprise.

This coefficient shows how the amount of net profit receives an enterprise from each ruble sold products. In other words, how many tools remain at the enterprise after covering the cost of products, interest payments on loans and tax payments. The sales profitability indicator characterizes the most important aspect of the company's activity - the implementation of the main products, and also allows us to estimate the share of the cost in sales.

Profitability of assets.

The rating indicator of assets is calculated by the following formula:

net profit,

A NP., A KP. - The value of assets at the beginning and end of the period.

The profitability of assets is an indicator of the efficiency of the enterprise's operational activity. It is the main production indicator, reflects the efficiency of using invested capital. From the point of view of accounting reporting, this indicator connects the balance and income statement, that is, the main and investment activity of the enterprise, so it is very important for financial management (the activities of the enterprise, we will consider in detail in the next chapter).

Financial lever (leverage).

This indicator reflects the capital structure advanced to the activities of the enterprise. It is calculated as the attitude of the entire advance capital of the enterprise to their own capital.

Advanced capital,

Equity.

The level of financial leverage can be interpreted, on the one hand, as a characteristic of financial sustainability and riskiness of the business, and on the other hand, as an assessment of the efficiency of use by the enterprise of borrowed funds.

Before moving in fact to factor analysis, we will make a number of important reservations regarding the scope of the DUPON model.

Analyzing the profitability of equity in a space-time aspect, it is necessary to take into account the three important features of this indicator, significant for the formulation of substantiated conclusions.

The first is associated with a temporary aspect of a commercial organization. The profitability coefficient of sales is determined by the performance of the reporting period; The likely and planned effect of long-term investment it does not reflect. For example, when a commercial organization makes a transition to new promising technologies or types of products that require large investments, profitability indicators may temporarily decline. However, if the strategy was chosen correctly, the costs incurred in the future will pay off, and in this case the reduction in profitability in the reporting period does not mean the low efficiency of the enterprise.

The second feature is determined by the risk problem. One of the indicators of business riskiness is the coefficient of financial dependence - the higher its importance, the more risky from the position of shareholders, investors and creditors is this business.

Thus, it is necessary to take into account the relationship between factors that are not directly reflected in the DUPON model. For example, proceeding only from the mathematical formula of the model, it may seem that the infinite increase in the financial lever will lead to an equally infinite increase in the profitability of equity. However, with an increase in the share of borrowed funds in advanced capital, payments for the use of loans are increasing. As a result, net income decreases and the increase in profitability of equity does not occur. In addition, it is impossible not to take into account the financial risk accompanying the use of borrowed sources.

The third feature is associated with the evaluation problem. The numerator and denominator of the profitability of own capital are expressed in monetary units of various purchasing power. Profit is a dynamic indicator, it reflects the results of the activity and the current level of prices for goods and services mainly over the past period. Unlike profits, its own capital is developing for a number of years. It is expressed in the accounting estimate, which can differ much from the current market value.

In addition, the accounting assessment of equity does not reflect future income of the enterprise. Not everything can be reflected in the balance sheet, for example, the prestige of the company, the trademark, the latest technology, highly qualified personnel do not have an adequate monetary assessment in reporting (if it comes to the sale of business as a whole). Thus, the market price of the company's shares can greatly exceed the accounting value, and in this case the high value of the profitability of equity does not mean a high return on the capital investigator. Therefore, the company's market value of the company should be taken into account.

Conclusion

The appointment of the DUPON model is to identify factors that determine the efficiency of the functioning of the business, assess the degree of their influence and developing trends in their change and significance. This model is also used for a comparative assessment of the risk of investing or lending to this enterprise.

All factors of the model and in terms of significance, and the trends in the change in the sectoral specificity, which the analyst must take into account. Thus, the resource reporting indicator may have a relatively low value in high-tech industries that differ in capital in contrast, on the contrary, an indicator of profitability of economic activity in them will be relatively high. The high value of the financial dependence coefficient can afford firms that have a stable and predicted flow of money for their products. The same applies to enterprises with a large proportion of liquid assets (enterprises of trade and sales, banks). Therefore, depending on the sectoral specifics, as well as specific financial and economic conditions, which pretended at this enterprise, it can bet on one or another factor in increasing the profitability of equity.

After performing work, I made the following conclusions.

Factor analysis - is one of the strongest methodological solutions in the analysis of the economic activities of companies to make decisions. The main task that is solved by a variety of methods of factor analysis, including the method of the main component, is the compression of information, the transition from a variety of values \u200b\u200bfor elementary features with the amount of information to a limited multiple elements of the factor display matrix or matrix of latent factors for each observed object.

The methods of factor analysis can also be visualized to the structure of studied phenomena and processes, which means determining their condition and predict development. Finally, data of factor analysis gives grounds for identifying an object, i.e. solutions to the image recognition problem.
Factor analysis methods have properties, very attractive for their use as part of other statistical methods, most often in correlation and regression analysis, cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, etc.

LITERATURE:

1. G.V.Savitskaya "Analysis of economic activity" Minsk LLC "New Knowledge", 2002

2. V.I.Strazhev "Analysis of economic activity in industry", MN. Higher School, 2003

3. Common and Special Management: Tutorial / Society. Ed. A.L.Gaponenko, A.P. Pancrukhin.-M.: Publishing House Rags, 2001.

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The main types of models used in financial analysis and forecasting.

Before you begin to talk about one of the types of financial analysis - factor analysis, we recall that such a financial analysis and what is his goal.

The financial analysis It is a method for evaluating the financial condition and efficiency of the economic entity based on the study of the dependence and dynamics of financial statements.

Financial analysis has several goals:

assessment of the financial situation;
identifying changes in financial condition in a space-time section;
identifying the main factors that caused changes in financial condition;
the forecast of the main trends in financial condition.

As you know, there are the following main types of financial analysis:

horizontal analysis;
vertical analysis;
trend analysis;
method of financial coefficients;
comparative analysis;
factor analysis.

liquidity indicators;
financial sustainability indicators;
business indicators;
profitability indicators.

As we see, modeling and analysis of factor models occupy an important place in the financial analysis methodology. Consider this aspect more.

The basis of modeling.

The functioning of any socio-economic system (to which the existing enterprise relates) in the context of the complex interaction of the complex of internal and external factors. Factor - This is the cause, driving force of any process or phenomenon, defining its character or one of the main features.

Classification and systematization of factors in the analysis of economic activities.

The analysis under study can be classified by different features.

By nature, factors are divided into natural, socio-economic and production and economic.

Production and economic factors determine the completeness and efficiency of the use of enterprise production resources and the final results of its activities.

Factors are divided by objective, independent of the will and desires of people, and subjectivesubject to influence of activities of legal entities and individuals.

Creature factor systems It is one of the ways of such systematization of factors. Consider the concept of a factor system.

Factor systems

Communication is called functional, or rigidly deterministic if each value of a factor corresponds to a completely definite inconsistency value of an effective feature.

Model The factor system is a mathematical formula, expressing real relations between the analyzed phenomena. In general, it can be presented like this:

where is the resulting sign;

Factor signs.

Factor analysis, its types and tasks.

Under factor analysis It is understood as the method of integrated and systemic study and measurement of the effects of factors on the value of the effective indicators.

In the general case, you can allocate the following The main stages of factor analysis:

Setting the purpose of the analysis.
Selection of factors defining the investigative indicators under study.
Classification and systematization of factors in order to ensure a comprehensive and systematic approach to the study of their impact on the results of economic activities.
Determining the form of a relationship between factors and an effective indicator.
Modeling the relationship between productive and factor indicators.
Calculation of the influence of factors and assessing the role of each of them in the change in the value of the effective indicator.
Work with a factor model (practical use of it for managing economic processes).

Simulation of economic indicators Also is a complex problem in factor analysis, which requires special knowledge and skills.

Calculation of the influence of factors - Chief methodological aspect in AHD. To determine the effect of factors, the final indicators use many methods that will be considered below.

The last stage of factor analysis - practical use of a factor model To count the reserves of the effective indicator, for planning and forecasting its value when changing the situation.

Depending on the type of factor model, two main types of factor analysis are distinguished - deterministic and stochastic.

Stochastic analysis It is a methodology for studying factors whose relationship with an effective figure in contrast to the functional is incomplete, probabilistic (correlation). If, with a functional (full) dependence with a change in the argument, a corresponding function change always occurs, then with a correlation connection, the change in the argument can give several functions of the function, depending on the combination of other factors that define this indicator. For example, labor productivity at one and the same level of stock models may be unequal at various enterprises. It depends on the optimality of a combination of other factors affecting this indicator.

Stochastic modeling is to a certain extent supplement and deepening deterministic factor analysis. In factor analysis, these models are used in three main reasons:

it is necessary to study the influence of factors for which it is impossible to build a rigidly deterministic factor model (for example, the level of financial leverage);

it is necessary to study the influence of complex factors that cannot be combined in the same rigidly deterministic model;
it is necessary to study the influence of complex factors that cannot be expressed by one quantitative indicator (for example, the level of scientific and technological progress).

Unlike a rigidly deterministic stochastic approach for implementation requires a number of prerequisites:

the presence of a totality;
sufficient observation volume;
accident and Independence of observations;
homogeneity;
the presence of the distribution of signs close to normal;
the presence of a special mathematical apparatus.

The construction of a stochastic model is carried out in several stages:

qualitative analysis (setting the purpose of the analysis, determination of the aggregate, determination of the effective and factor signs, the choice of the period for which the analysis is carried out, the choice of the analysis method);
preliminary analysis of the simulated aggregate (verification of the uniformity of the aggregate, the elimination of abnormal observations, the refinement of the required sampling, the establishment of the laws of distribution of the indicators under study);
construction of a stochastic (regression) model (clarification of the list of factors, the calculation of estimates of the parameters of the regression equation, bust of competing models);
assessment of the model's adequacy (verification of the statistical materiality of the equation as a whole and its individual parameters, checking the compliance of the formal properties of estimates of the tasks of the study);
economic interpretation and practical use of the model (determination of the spatial-temporal stability of the constructed dependence, the assessment of the practical properties of the model).

In addition to division on deterministic and stochastic, the following types of factor analysis distinguish:

direct and reverse;
single-stage and multistage;
static and dynamic;
retrospective and promising (forecast).

Factor analysis may be single-stage and multistage. The first type is used to study the factors of only one level (one step) of subordination without their detail to components. For example, . In case of multi-stage factor analysis, details of factors are carried out. a. and b. For composite elements in order to study their behavior. Detailing factors can continue further. In this case, the influence of factors of various levels of coziness is studied.

It is also necessary to distinguish staticand dynamic factor analysis. The first species applies when studying the effects of factors on the resultant indicators on the appropriate date. Another species is a methodology for studying causal relationships in dynamics.

And finally, factor analysis can be retrospective which studies the causes of the increase in the resulting indicators in past periods, and promising which explores the behavior of factors and the resultant indicators in the future.

Deterministic factor analysis.

Deterministic factor analysis It has a sufficiently rigid sequence of performed procedures:

building an economically informed deterministic factor model;
selection of factor analysis and preparation of conditions for its implementation;
implementation of countable procedures for analyzing the model;
formulation of conclusions and recommendations based on the results of the analysis.

The first stage is especially important, since the incorrectly constructed model can lead to logically unnecessary results. The meaning of this stage is as follows: any expansion of a rigidly deterministic factor model should not contradict the logic of the connection "Cause - Corollary". As an example, consider the model connecting the volume of implementation (P), the number (h) and labor productivity (PT). Theoretically, you can explore three models:

All three formulas are true from the position of arithmetic, however, from the position of factor analysis, only the first one makes sense, since it is indicators that stand in the right part of the formula are factors, i.e. the cause that generates and defining the value of the indicator in the left side (consequence ).

At the second stage, one of the factor analysis techniques are selected: integral, chain substitutions, logarithmic, etc. Each of these techniques has its advantages and disadvantages. A brief comparative characteristic of these methods, we will consider below.

Types of deterministic factor models.

The following deterministic analysis models exist:

additive model, i.e. the model in which factors are included in the form of an algebraic amount, a model of the commodity balance can be brought as an example:

where R - implementation;

Reserves at the beginning of the period;

P - receipt of goods;

Stocks at the end of the period;

IN - other disposal of goods;

multiplicative model, i.e. the model in which factors are included in the form of a work; An example is the simplest two-factor model:

where R - implementation;

C. - Number;

PT. - labor productivity;

multiple model, i.e., a model representing the ratio of factors, for example:

where - stock repair;

OS.

C. - Number;

mixed model, i.e. the model in which factors are included in various combinations, for example:

where R - implementation;

Profitability;

OS. - the cost of fixed assets;
About - Cost of working capital.

A rigidly deterministic model having more than two factors called multifactor.

Typical tasks of deterministic factor analysis.

In deterministic factor analysis, four typical tasks can be distinguished:

Assessment of the influence of the relative change in factors on the relative change in the effective indicator.
Assessment of the impact of the absolute change of the i-th factor on the absolute change in the effective indicator.
Determining the ratio of the value of a change in the effective indicator caused by a change in the I-th factor to the basic value of the effective indicator.
The determination of the share of the absolute change in the effective indicator caused by the change in the I-th factor, in the general change of the effective indicator.

We characterize these tasks and consider the solution of each of them on a specific simple example.

Example.

The volume of gross production (VP) depends on the two main factors of the first level: the number of employees (CR) and the average annual production (GW). We have a two-factor multiplicative model :. Consider the situation when and developing, and the number of workers in the reporting period deviated from the planned values.

Data for calculations are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Data for factor analysis of gross production.

Task 1.

The task makes sense for multiplicative and multiple models. Consider the simplest two-factor model. Obviously, when analyzing the dynamics of these indicators, the following ratio between indexes will be performed:

where the index value is the ratio of the value of the indicator in the reporting period to the basic.

Calculate the indexes of gross products, the number of employees and the average annual production for our example:

;

According to the above rule, the gross production index is equal to the product of the indices of the employees and the average annual production, i.e.

Obviously, if we calculate the index of gross products directly, we will get the same value:

We can conclude: as a result of an increase in the number of employees, 1.2 times and increasing the average annual production of 1.25 times the volume of gross production increased by 1.5 times.

Thus, relative changes in factor and effective indicators are associated with the same dependence as indicators in the original model. This task is solved when answering questions like: "What will happen if the i-th indicator changes to N%, and the J-th indicator will change to k%?".

Task 2.

Is an the main task deterministic factor analysis; Her general production has the form:

Let be - a rigidly deterministic model that characterizes the change in the performance indicator y. from n. factors; All indicators received increment (for example, in dynamics, compared with the plan, compared with the standard):

It is required to determine which part of the increment of the performance indicator y. It is obliged to increment the i-th factor, i.e. to write the following dependence:

where - the overall change of the effective indicator, developing under the simultaneous influence of all factor signs;

Changing the effective indicator under the influence of only the factor.

Depending on which method of analyzing the model is selected, factorial decompositions may vary. Therefore, we consider in the context of this problem the basic methods for analyzing factor models.

The main methods of deterministic factor analysis.

One of the most important methodological in AHD is to determine the magnitude of the influence of individual factors on the increase in productive indicators. In deterministic factor analysis (DFA), the following methods are used: detecting isolated influence of factors, chain substitution, absolute differences, relative differences, proportional division, integral, logarithm, etc.

The first three methods are based on the elimination method. Elimination means to eliminate, reject, eliminate the impact of all factors on the value of the effective indicator, except one. This method comes from the fact that all factors change independently of each other: first changes one, and all others remain unchanged, then two, then three, etc., with the rest of the rest. This allows you to determine the influence of each factor on the value of the indicator under study separately.

Let us give a brief description of the most common ways.

The method of the chain substitution is a very simple and visual method, the most versatile of all. It is used to calculate the influence of factors in all types of deterministic factor models: additive, multiplicative, multiple and mixed. This method allows to determine the influence of individual factors on the change in the value of the effective indicator by gradually replacing the basic value of each factor in the amount of the effective indicator on the actual in the reporting period. For this purpose, a number of conditional values \u200b\u200bof the effective indicator are determined, which take into account the change in one, then two, then three, etc. factors, assigning that the rest do not change. A comparison of the value of the effective indicator before and after the change in the level of a factor can determine the impact of a particular factor on the increase in the performance indicator, eliminating the influence of other factors. When using this method, a complete decomposition is achieved.

Recall that when using this method, the sequence of changing the values \u200b\u200bof factors is of great importance, since the quantitative assessment of the influence of each factor depends on this.

First of all, it should be noted that there is no uniform procedure for determining this order - there are models in which it can be defined arbitrarily. Only for a small number of models you can use formalized approaches. In practice, this problem does not matter much, because in retrospective analysis, trends and relative significance of a factor or another, and not exact estimates of their influence are important.

Nevertheless, for compliance with a more or less unified approach, to determine the procedure for replacing factors in the model, general principles can be formulated. We introduce some definitions.

A sign, directly related to the studied phenomenon and characterizing its quantitative side, is called primary or quantitative. These features: a) absolute (volume); b) they can be summarized in space and time. As an example, the amount of implementation, the number, the cost of working capital, etc.

The signs relating to the studied phenomenon are not directly, but through one or more other signs and characterizing the qualitative side of the studied phenomenon are called secondary or quality. These features: a) relative; b) They cannot be summed in space and time. Examples can serve as a stock source, profitability, etc. In the analysis, the secondary factors of the 1st, 2nd, etc., are distinguished in the analysis, obtained by consistently detail.

The rigidly deterministic factor model is called full, if the result is quantitative, and incomplete, if the effective indicator is high quality. In a complete two-factor model, one factor is always quantified, the second is high quality. In this case, the replacement of factors recommend starting from a quantitative indicator. If there are several quantitative and several high-quality indicators, then you must first change the value of the factors of the first level of submission, and then lower. Thus, the use of a chain substitution method requires knowledge of the relationship of factors, their coodes, the ability to correctly classify them and systematize.

Now consider on our example the procedure for using the method of chain substitutions.

The calculation algorithm by the method of the chain substitution for this model is as follows:

As we can see, the second gross indicator differs from the first in that, when calculating it, the actual number of workers is adopted instead of planned. The average annual development of one working in the same case is planned. Hence, due to an increase in the number of workers, production has increased by 32,000 million rubles. (192 000 - 160 000).

The third indicator differs from the second in the fact that when calculating its magnitude, the production of workers was accepted according to the actual level instead of the planned. The number of employees in both cases is actual. From here, due to an increase in labor productivity, the volume of gross production increased by 48,000 million rubles. (240,000 - 192,000).

Thus, the over-fulfillment of the plan in terms of gross production was the result of the influence of the following factors:

The algebraic amount of factors when using this method must necessarily be equal to the overall increase in the performance:

The absence of such equality indicates errors in the calculations.

Other analysis methods, such as integral and logarithmic, achieve higher accuracy of calculations, but these methods have a more limited application scope and require a large amount of computing, which is inconvenient to conduct operational analysis.

Task 3.

It is in a certain sense by a consequence of a second typical problem, since it is based on the resulting factor decomposition. The need to solve this problem is due to the fact that elements of factor decomposition are absolute values \u200b\u200bthat are difficult to use for spatial-temporal comparisons. When solving problems 3, factor decomposition is complemented by relative indicators:

Economic Interpretation: The coefficient shows how much percent to the baseline has changed the effective indicator under the influence of the I-th factor.

Calculate the coefficients α For our example, using a factor decomposition obtained earlier by chain substitutions:

;

Thus, the volume of gross production increased by 20% by increasing the number of workers and by 30% by increasing production. The total increase in gross production amounted to 50%.

Task 4.

It is also solved on the basis of the basic problem 2 and comes down to the calculation of indicators:

Economic Interpretation: The coefficient shows the share of the increase in the effective indicator, due to the change in the I-th factor. The question does not arise here if all factor signs change unwisely (or increase or decrease). If this condition is not performed, the solution to the problem can be complicated. In particular, in the simplest two-factor model in a similar case, the calculation according to the above formula is not performed and it is believed that 100% of the increase in the performance indicator is due to a change in the dominant factor of the sign, i.e., a sign that varying unidirectionally with an effective indicator.

Calculate the coefficients γ For our example, using a factor decomposition obtained by chain substitution methods:

Thus, the increase in the number of employees led 40% of the overall increase in gross production, and an increase in production is 60%. It means that an increase in the development in this situation is a defining factor.

Conduct factor analysis Fin. The results are carried out on the basis of several indicators:

Profit from sale;
Net profit;
Gross profits;
Profit to taxation taxes.

Consider how the analysis of each of these indicators is carried out in more detail.

Factor analysis of profits from sales

Factor analysis is a method of integrated and systemic measurement and study of the influence of factors on the size of the final indicators. It is carried out on the basis of boo. Report on the second form.

The main purpose of this analysis is to find ways to increase the profitability of the company.

The main factors that affect the amount of profit are:

Volume sales of products. To find out how it affects the yield, you need to multiply the change in the number of products implemented on the profit of the past period of the report.
Variety of goods sold. To find out its influence, it is required to compare the profit of the current period, which is calculated on the basis of the cost and prices of the baseline period, with the basic profit, which has been recalculated for changing the number of products sold.
Changing cost. To find out its influence, it is required to compare the cost of implementing the goods of the report period with the costs of the basic period, which are recalculated for a change in the level of implementation.
Commercial and Administrative Costs. Their effect is calculated by comparing their dimensions in the base period and the report period.
Price level. To find out its influence, it is required to compare the level of sales of the period of the report and the base period.

Factor analysis of sales profits - Example of calculation

Original information:

Indicator	Basic period, thousand rubles.	Report period	Absolute change	Relative change,%
Revenue size	57700	54200	-3500	-6,2
Cost of goods	41800	39800	-2000	-4,9
Commercial costs	2600	1400	-1200	-43,6
Administrative costs	4800	3700	-1100	-21,8
Profit	8500	9100	600	7,4
Changing prices	1,05	1,15	0,10	15
Volume of sales	57800	47100	-10700	-18,5

The factors listed above were the following influence:

The volume of products sold is -1578 thousand rubles.
A variety of goods sold - -1373 thousand rubles.
Cost - -5679 thousand rubles.
Commercial costs - +1140 thousand rubles.
Administrative costs - +1051 thousand rubles.
Prices - +7068 thousand rubles.
The influence of all factors is +630 thousand rubles.

Factory analysis of net profit

Conducting a factor analysis of net profit occurs in several stages:

Definition of profit change: PE \u003d PP1 - PP0
Calculation of sales growth:% \u003d (B1 / B0) * 100-100
Determination of the impact of a change in sales: PP1 \u003d (PP0 * in%) / 100
Calculation of the influence of price price changes: PP1 \u003d (B1-B0) / 100
Determination of the influence of price change: PP1 \u003d (C / C1 - C / C0) / 100

Factory analysis of net profit - an example of calculation

Source information for analysis:

Indicator	Size, thousand rubles.
Indicator	Basic period	Real volume, expressed in basic prices	Report period
Revenue	43000	32000	41000
Cost price	31000	22000	32000
Commercial costs	5600	4700	6300
Management costs	1100	750	940
Complete cost	37600	27350	39200
Profit Loss)	5000	4650	2000

We will analyze:

Profit has become less than 3000 thousand rubles.
Sales level fell by 25.58%, which amounted to 1394 thousand rubles.
The impact of changes in price levels amounted to 9000 thousand rubles.
The effect of cost -11850 thousand rubles.

Factor analysis of gross profit

Gross profit is the difference between profit from the sale of goods and their cost. Factor analysis of gross profits is carried out on the basis of boo. Report on the second form.

The change in the size of gross profits is influenced:

Changing the number of goods sold;
Changing the cost of products.

Factor Analysis of Gross Profit - Example

The source information is shown in the table:

Substituting the initial data in the formula, we obtain that the impact of revenue change amounted to 1686 thousand rubles.

Factor analysis of profits before tax

Factors that affect the amount of profit to taxation by taxes are as follows:

Changing the number of goods sold;
Changing the structure of sold;
Changing prices for sold goods;
Commercial and managerial costs;
Cost price;
Changing prices for resources from which the cost is consistent.

Factor analysis of profits before tax - Example

Consider an example of a profit analysis before taxes.

Indicator	Basic period	Report period	Deviation	Influence size
Profit from sales	351200	214500	-136700	-136700
Interest to getting	3500	800	-2700	-2700
Interest to pay	—	—	—	—
Other income	96600	73700	-22900	-22900
Other costs	112700	107300	-5400	-5400
Profit to taxation	338700	181600	-157100	-157100

On the table you can draw conclusions:

Profit before taxing in the period of the report compared with the basic period decreased by 157047 thousand rubles. Basically, it happened due to a decrease in the amount of profits from the sale of products.
In addition, a decrease in interest on obtaining (2700 thousand rubles) and other revenues (by 22900 thousand rubles was negatively affected.
Positively affected the profit to taxation only a decrease in other costs (5400 thousand rubles).

Profit from sales of the company is calculated as the difference between sales revenue from goods, works, services (with the exception of VAT, excise taxes and other mandatory payments), cost, commercial expenses and management costs.

The main factors affecting the magnitude of the profit from sales are:

changing sales;
changes in the range of products implemented;
changing the cost of production;
changing the sale price of products.

Factor analysis of profits from sales We are needed to evaluate reserves for improving production efficiency, i.e. The main task of factor analysis is to search for ways to maximize the company's profits. In addition, factor analysis of sales profits is a justification for making management decisions.

To carry out the analysis to make an analytical table, the source of information is the accounting balance and income statement of the company (1 and 2 form of balance):

Source data for factor analysis of sales

Indicators	Previous period thousand roubles.	Reporting period thousand roubles.	Absolute change thousand roubles.	Relative the change, %
1	2	3	4	5
Revenue from the sale of products, works or services	57 800	54 190	-3 610	-6,2%
Cost price	41 829	39 780	-2 049	-4,9%
Commercial expenses	2 615	1 475	-1 140	-43,6%
Management expenses	4 816	3 765	-1 051	-21,8%
Revenue from sales	8 540	9 170	630	7,4%
Price change index	1,00	1,15	0,15	15,0%
Sales volume in comparable prices	57 800	47 122	-10 678	-18,5%

We define the influence of factors on the amount of company profits as follows.

1. To determine the impact of profit sales The profit of the previous period is needed to multiply the change in sales.

Revenues from the sale of goods of the enterprise in the reporting period amounted to 54,190 thousand rubles, first, it is necessary to determine the sales volume in basic prices (54 190 / 1.15), which amounted to 47,122 thousand rubles. Taking into account this, the change in sales for the analyzed period was 81.5% (47,122/57 800 * 100%), i.e. There was a decrease in the volume of products sold by 18.5%. Due to the decline in sales of products, profits from the sale of products, works, services decreased: 8 540 * (-0.185) \u003d -1 578 thousand rubles.

It should be noted that the main methodological complexity of determining the impact of sales on the profit of the company is associated with the difficulties of determining the change in the physical volume of sales. It is more correct to determine changes in sales by comparing reporting and basic indicators expressed in natural or conditionally natural meters. This is possible when the products are homogeneous. In most cases, realized products in their composition are inhomogeneous and it is necessary to compare in value terms. To ensure comparability of data and eliminating the effect of other factors, it is necessary to compare the reporting and basic sales volumes, expressed in the same prices (preferably in the prices of the base period).

The price change index for products, work, services is calculated by dividing the volume of the reporting period on the index of price changes. This calculation is not entirely accurate, since the prices for realized products change during the entire reporting period.

2. Impact of the range of sales The organization's profit is determined by comparison of the profits of the reporting period, calculated on the basis of the prices and cost of the baseline period, with the basic profit, recalculated for a change in the volume of implementation.

The profit of the reporting period, based on the cost and prices of the baseline period, can be determined with a certain fraction of the convention as follows:

revenue from the sale of the reporting period in the prices of the base period 47 122 thousand rubles;
actually realized products calculated on the basis of base cost (41 829 * 0.815) \u003d 34 101 thousand rubles;
commercial expenses of the base period of 2,615 thousand rubles;
managerial expenses of the base period 4,816 thousand rubles;
the profit of the reporting period, calculated on the basis of base cost and base prices (47,122-34 101-2 615-4 816) \u003d 5,590 thousand rubles.

Thus, the effect of shifts in the structure of the range by the profit value from sales is: 5 590 - (8 540 * 0,81525) \u003d -1 373 thousand rubles.

The calculation shows that the proportion of products with a lower level of profitability increased as part of the products.

3. Impact of price change The profit can be determined by comparing the cost of realizing the product of the reporting period with the cost of the base period, recalculated on the change in sales volume: (41 829 * 0.815) - 39780 \u003d -5 679 thousand rubles. The cost of realized products increased, therefore, the profit from the sale of products has decreased by the same amount.

4. The impact of changes in commercial and managerial expenses We define the company's profits by comparing their values \u200b\u200bin the reporting and base period. By lowering the size of commercial expenses, the profit increased by 1 140 thousand rubles (1 475 - 2 615), and by reducing the size of management costs - by 1,051 thousand rubles (3,765 - 4,816).

5. To determine the influence of prices Sales of products, works, services for a change in profits It is necessary to compare the sales of the reporting period expressed in the prices of the reporting and base period, i.e.: 54 190 - 47 122 \u003d 7,068 thousand rubles.

Summing up, we consider the overall impact of all listed factors:

impact of sales volume -1 578 thousand rubles;
the impact of the structure of the range of products sold -1 373 thousand rubles;
influence of cost -5 679 thousand rubles;
the impact of the magnitude of commercial expenses is +1 140 thousand rubles;
the impact of the magnitude of management costs +1 051 thousand rubles;
the impact of sales prices +7 068 thousand rubles;
the overall influence of factors +630 thousand rubles.

A significant increase in the cost of production has occurred mainly by increasing prices for raw materials and materials. In addition, a negative impact of a decrease in sales and negative shifts in product range has had a negative impact. The negative impact of the listed factors was compensated by an increase in sales price, as well as a decrease in management and commercial expenses. Consequently, enterprise profit growth reserves are an increase in sales, an increase in the share of more profitable types of products in the total implementation and reduction of goods, works and services.

The relationship of economic phenomena. Presentation of factor analysis. Types of factor analysis, its main tasks.

All phenomena and processes of economic activity of enterprises are in relationships, interdependence and conditionality. Some of them are directly related to each other, the other is also. For example, factors such as the number of workers and the level of productivity of their labor have direct impact on the value of gross products. All other factors affect this indicator indirectly.

Each phenomenon can be considered as a cause and as a result. For example, productivity can be considered, on the one hand, as the cause of changes in production, the level of its cost, and on the other - as a result of changing the degree of mechanization and automation of production, improvement of labor organization, etc.

Each productive indicator depends on numerous and varied factors. The more detailed the influence of factors on the value of the effective indicator, the more accurate the results of the analysis and the assessment of the quality of the work of enterprises. Hence, an important methodological question in the analysis of economic activities is the study and measurement of the influence of factors on the magnitude of the investigated economic indicators. Without a deep and comprehensive study of factors, it is impossible to make informed conclusions about the results of activities, identify production reserves, justify plans and management decisions.

Under factor analysis It is understood as the method of integrated and systemic study and measurement of the effects of factors on the value of the effective indicators.

Distinguish the following types of factor analysis:

deterministic and stochastic;

direct and reverse;

single-stage and multistage;

static and dynamic;

retrospective and promising (forecast).

Deterministic factor analysis It is a methodology for studying the influence of factors whose relationship is functional in nature, i.e. When the productive indicator is presented in the form of a work, private or algebraic amount of factors.

Stochastic analysis It is a methodology for studying factors whose relationship with an effective figure in contrast to the functional is incomplete, probabilistic (correlation). If, with a functional (full) dependence with a change in the argument, a corresponding function change always occurs, then with a correlation connection, the change in the argument can give several functions of the function, depending on the combination of other factors that define this indicator. For example, labor productivity at the same level of stock-based female can be unequal in various enterprises. It depends on the optimality of a combination of other factors affecting this indicator.

For direct factor analysis The study is conducted by a deductive way - from common to private. Reverse factor analysis Exercises a study with causal relationships with a way of logical induction - from private, individual factors to generalizing.

Factor analysis may be single-stage and multistage. The first type is used to study the factors of only one level (one step) of subordination without their detail to components. For example, w. = but H. b. In case of multi-stage factor analysis, details of factors are carried out. but and b. For composite elements in order to study their behavior. Detailing factors can continue further. In this case, the influence of factors of various levels of coodus is studied.

It must be distinguished as well static and dynamic factor analysis. The first form is used in the study of the effects of factors on the effective indicators to the appropriate date. Another species is a methodology for studying causal relationships in dynamics.

Finally, factor analysis may be retrospective which studies the causes of the increase in the resulting indicators in past periods, and promising which explores the behavior of factors and the resultant indicators in the future.

The main tasks of factor analysis the following.

1. Selection of factors defining the investigative indicators under study.

2. Classification and systematization of factors in order to ensure a comprehensive and systematic approach to the study of their impact on the results of economic activities.

3. Determination of the form of a relationship between factors and an effective indicator.

4. Modeling the relationship between productive and factor indicators.

5. Calculation of the influence of factors and assessing the role of each of them in the change in the value of the effective indicator.

6. Working with a factor model (practical use of economic processes).

Selection of factors for analysis One of the indicator is carried out on the basis of theoretical and practical knowledge acquired in this industry. It usually proceeds from the principle: the greater complex of factors is investigated, the more accurate the results of the analysis. At the same time, it is necessary to keep in mind that if this complex of factors is considered as a mechanical amount, without taking into account their interaction, without the allocation of the main defining, the conclusions may be erroneous. In AhD, the interconnected study of the influence of factors on the amount of productive indicators is achieved with the help of their systematization, which is one of the main methodological issues of this science.

An important methodological question in factor analysis is definition of the form of addiction Between factors and efficient indicators: it is functional or stochastic, direct or reverse, straight or curvilinear. Here is theoretical and practical experience, as well as methods of comparing parallel and dynamic series, analytical groups of source information, graphic, etc.

Simulation of economic indicators (deterministic and stochastic) is also a complex methodological problem in factor analysis, which requires special knowledge and practical skills in this industry. In this regard, a lot of attention is paid to this course.

The most important methodological aspect in AHD - calculation of influence Factors on the value of the resultant indicators, for which the analysis uses a whole arsenal of methods, essence, purpose, the scope of which and the calculation procedures are considered in the following chapters.

Finally, the last stage of factor analysis - practical use of a factor model To calculate the reserves of an increase in the effective indicator, for planning and predicting its value when changing the production situation.

5.2. Classification of factors in economic analysis

The value of the classification of factors. Basic types of factors. The concept and difference of various types of factors in AHD.

Investigated in the analysis can be classified according to different features (Fig. 5.1).

By nature, factors are divided into natural-climatic, socio-economic and production and economic. Natural climatic factors A great influence on the results of activities in agriculture, in the extractive industry, forestry and other industries. The accounting of their influence makes it possible to more accurate the results of the work of business entities.

TO socio-economic factors Housing conditions of workers, the organization of cultural, sports, sports and recreational work in the enterprise, the overall level of culture and education of personnel, etc. They contribute to the more complete use of the enterprise's production resources and increase its efficiency.

Production and economic factors Determine the completeness and efficiency of the use of enterprise production resources and the final results of its activities.

According to the degree of impact on the results of economic activity, factors are divided into basic and minor. TO basic The factors that have a decisive impact on the productive indicator. Secondary those are considered that they do not have a decisive impact on the results of economic activities in the current conditions. Here it is necessary to notice that the same factor depending on the circumstances may be the main, and secondary. The ability to highlight the main factors from the variety, which determine the correctness of the conclusions on the results of the analysis.

Of great importance in the study of economic phenomena and processes and the assessment of the results of enterprises has the classification of factors on internal and external That is, the factors that depend and do not depend on the activities of this enterprise. The main attention under the analysis should be given to the study of internal factors to which the company can affect.

At the same time, in many cases, with developed production relations and relations on the results of each enterprise, the activities of other enterprises, such as the uniformity and timeliness of the supply of raw materials, materials, their quality, cost, market conditions, inflation processes, etc. are significantly influenced. The results of the work of enterprises reflect changes in the field of specialization and production cooperation. These factors are external. They do not characterize the efforts of this collective, but their research makes it possible to more accurately determine the degree of exposure to internal reasons and thereby more fully identify the internal reserves of production.

To properly assess enterprises, factors must be divided into objective and subjective Objective, such as a natural disaster, do not depend on the will and desires of people. In contrast to objective, subjective reasons depend on the activities of legal entities and individuals.

According to the degree of prevalence, factors are divided into general and specific. General includes factors that operate in all sectors of the economy. Specific are those that operate in a separate sector of the economy or enterprise. Such division of factors makes it possible to fully take into account the features of individual enterprises, industries and make a more accurate assessment of their activities.

By the term of impact on the results of economic activity distinguish factors permanent and variables. Permanent factors affect the studied phenomenon continuously, throughout the entire time. The impact of variable factors manifests itself periodically, for example, the development of new techniques, new types of products, new production technology, etc.

Of great importance for assessing the activities of enterprises is the division of factors by the nature of their action on intensive and extensive. Extensive are factors that are associated with quantitative, and not with high-quality increase in the performance indicator, for example, an increase in the production of products by expanding the seed area, an increase in livestock, the number of workers, etc. Intensive factors characterize the degree of effort, labor tension in the production process, for example, an increase in the yield of crops, animal productivity, labor productivity level.

If the analysis is set to measure the effect of each factor on the results of economic activity, they are divided into quantitative and qualitative, complex and simple, straight and indirect, measurable and immeasurable.

Quantified The factors that express the quantitative certainty of phenomena (the number of workers, equipment, raw materials, etc.) is considered. Quality Factors determine internal qualities, features and features of the objects studied (labor productivity, product quality, soil fertility, etc.).

Most of the factors studied in their composition are complex, consist of several elements. However, there are also those that do not launch composite parts. In this regard, factors are divided into complex (complex) and simple (element). An example of a complex factor is labor productivity, and a simple number of working days in the reporting period.

As already mentioned, some factors have a direct impact on the productive indicator, others are indirect. In terms of the level of cozenism (hierarchy), the factors of the first, second, third and subsequent levels of submission are distinguished. TO factors of the first level These are those that directly affect the productive indicator. Factors that determine the effective indicator indirectly, with the help of the factors of the first level, are called factors of the second level etc. In fig. 5.2 shows that the current level factors are the average annual number of workers and the average annual production of products in one worker. The number of worked days by one working and the average daine production is the factors of the second level relative to gross production. The factors of the third level include the duration of the working day and the average hourly developing.

The impact of individual factors on the productive indicator can be determined quantitatively. At the same time, there are a number of factors whose influence on the results of enterprises is not directly measured, for example, staff security with housing, children's institutions, training level of personnel and others.

5.3. Systematization of factors in economic analysis

The need and importance of systematization of factors. Main ways to systematize factors in deterministic and stochastic analysis.

The systematic approach in AHD causes the need to interconnected the study of factors, taking into account their internal and external bonds, interaction and coinlaughter, which is achieved by systematization. Systematization as a whole is the placement of studied phenomena or objects in a certain order with the identification of their relationship and subordination.

One of the ways to systematize the factors is to create deterministic factor systems. Create a factor system - It means that the studied phenomenon in the form of an algebraic amount, a private or work of several factors determining its magnitude and the functional dependence with it.

For example, the volume of gross products of the industrial enterprise can be represented as a work of two factors of the first order: the average number of workers and the average production of products in one worker for the year, which in turn depends directly on the number of days spent one workers on average for the year and the average daily production of production . The latter can also be decomposed on the duration of the working day and the average hourly generation (Fig. 5.2).

The development of the deterministic factor system is achieved, as a rule, by detailing complex factors. Elemental (in our example - the number of workers, the number of days spent, the duration of the working day) is not laid out of the factors, since they are homogeneous according to their content. With the development of the system, complex factors are gradually detailed to less general, those in turn are still less general, gradually approaching their analytical content to elemental (simple).

However, it should be noted that the development of factor systems to the necessary depth is associated with some methodological difficulties and primarily with the difficulty of finding a general factors that could be represented as a work, a private or algebraic amount of several factors. Therefore, the deterministic systems usually cover the most common factors. Meanwhile, the study of more specific factors in AHD is significantly higher than common.

It follows that the improvement of factor analysis techniques should be directed to the interconnected study of specific factors that are usually in stochastic dependence with effective indicators.

Of great importance in the study of stochastic relationships has structural and logical analysis of the connection between the studied indicators. It allows you to establish the presence or absence of causal relationships between the test indicators under study, study the direction of communication, the form of dependence, etc., which is very important when determining the degree of their influence on the phenomenon studied and when summarizing the analysis results.

Analysis of the communication structure of the studied indicators in AHD is carried out using the construction structural logical block diagram, which allows you to establish the presence and direction of communication not only between the factors studied and the effective indicative, but also between the factors themselves. By building a block diagram, it can be seen that among the studied factors have such that more or less directly affect the productive indicator, and such that affect not so much on the productive indicator as each other.

For example, in Fig. 5.3 shows the relationship between the cost of crop production unit and such factors such as crop yields, labor productivity, quantity of fertilizer, the quality of seeds, the degree of mechanization of production.

First of all, it is necessary to establish the presence and direction of communication between the cost of products and each factor. Of course, there is a close connection between them. Direct influence on the cost of production provides only the yield of cultures in this example. All other factors affect the cost of production not only directly, but also indirectly, through the yield of cultures and labor productivity. For example, the amount of fertilizers made to the soil contributes to an increase in crop yields, which, upon other things, the same conditions determine the reduction in the cost of the unit of products. However, it is necessary to take into account the fact that an increase in the number of fertilizers made leads to an increase in the amount of costs for hectares. And if the amount of cost increases with higher rates than yield, then the cost of production will not decline, but to rise. It means that the link between these two indicators may be direct, and reverse. Similarly affects the cost of production and the quality of seeds. The acquisition of elite, high-quality seeds causes an increase in costs. If they increase to a greater extent than the yield from the use of more high-quality seeds, the cost of production will increase, and vice versa.

The degree of production mechanization affects the cost of production and directly, and indirectly. Increasing the level of mechanization causes the cost of maintaining the main means of production. However, it increases the productivity of labor, yield is growing, which contributes to a decrease in production costs.

The study of relationships between factors shows that of all the factors under study, there is no causal relationship between the quality of seeds, the number of fertilizers and the mechanization of production. There is also a direct inverse dependence of these indicators from the level of crop yield. All other factors directly or indirectly affect each other.

Thus, the systematization of factors allows to more deeply examine the relationship of factors in the formation of the value of the recorded indicator, which is very important at the following stages of the analysis, especially at the stage of modeling the indicators under study.

5.4. Determined modeling and conversion of factor systems

Essence and value of modeling, requirements for it. The main types of factor deterministic models. Methods for converting factor models. Modeling rules.

One of the tasks of factor analysis is the modeling of relationships between the effective indicators and factors that determine their magnitude.

Modeling - This is one of the most important methods of scientific knowledge with which the model (conditional image) of the research object is created. Its essence lies in the fact that the relationship of the studied indicator with factories is transmitted in the form of a specific mathematical equation.

In factor analysis distinguish determined models (functional) and stochastic (correlation). With the help of deterministic factor models, the functional relationship between the effective indicator (function) and factors (arguments) is investigated.

When modeling deterministic factor systems, a number of requirements must be performed.

1. Factors included in the model and the models themselves must have a definitely pronounced nature, really exist, and not to be invented abstract values \u200b\u200bor phenomena.

2. Factors that are included in the system should be not only necessary elements of formula, but also to be in causal relationships with the indicators studied. In other words, the constructed factor system should have cognitive value. Factor models that reflect the causal relations between indicators have significantly greater informative significance than models created by means of mathematical abstraction techniques. The latter can be illustrated as follows. Take two models:

1) VP \u003d CRh. HB:

2) HB \u003d V / CR,where VP - gross enterprise products; CR - The number of employees in the enterprise; Gv - The average annual production of products with one employee.

In the first system, factors are in the causal connection with an effective indicative, and in the second - in the mathematical ratio. So, the second model, built on mathematical dependencies, has a smaller cognitive value than the first.

3. All indicators of the factor model must be quantitatively measurable, i.e. Must have a unit of measurement and the necessary information security.

4. The factor model should provide the possibility of measuring the influence of individual factors, which means that it should take into account the proportionality of changes in productive and factor indicators, and the amount of the influence of individual factors should be equal to the total increase in the effective indicator.

In deterministic analysis, the following types of frequently encountered factor models are distinguished.

1. Additive models:

They are used in cases where the productive indicator is an algebraic amount of several factor indicators.

2. Multiplicative models:

This type of models is used when the productive indicator is a product of several factors.

3. Multiple models:

They are used when the resultant indicator is obtained by dividing one factor indicator by the value of the other.

4. Mixed (combined) models - This is a combination of various combinations of previous models:

Modeling multiplicative factor systems The AHD is carried out by consistently dismembering the factors of the source system on factors. For example, when studying the process of forming the production volume of production (see Fig. 5.2), such deterministic models can be applied as:

These models reflect the process of detailing the initial system of multiplicative species and expansion of it by dismembering the factors of complex factors. The degree of detail and expansion of the model depends on the purpose of the study, as well as on the possibilities of detailing and formalizing indicators within the established rules.

Similarly implemented simulation of additive factor systems Due to the dismemberment of one or more factor of component elements.

As is known, the sales volume is equal to:

V.RP \u003d.VB.P -V.AND,

where VB.P - volume of production; V.And - The volume of intravenous use of products.

In the farm, products were used as seeds (C) and feed (TO). Then the above source model can be written as follows: V.RP \u003d.VB.P - (C + K).

To the class multiple models Apply the following methods for their transformation: extension, formal decomposition, expansion and abbreviation.

First method It provides for the elongation of the numerator of the original model by replacing one or more factors in the sum of homogeneous indicators. For example, the cost of the unit of products can be represented as a function of two factors: changes in costs (3) and production volume (VB.P). The source model of this factor system will be viewed

If the total cost of costs (3) is replaced by their individual elements, such as wages (3P), raw materials and materials (cm), depreciation of fixed assets (a), overhead costs (HP.) et al., The deterministic factor model will have a form of an additive model with a new set of factors:

where X 1 - labor complexity; X 2 - material consumption of products; X 3 - product durability; X 4 - The level of overhead.

Method of formal decomposition The factor system provides for the elongation of the denominator of the initial factor model by replacing one or more factors in the amount or product of homogeneous indicators. If a IN = L.+ M + n + r, then

As a result, the final model of the same species as the original factor system (multiple model) was obtained. In practice, such a decomposition is found quite often. For example, when analyzing the profitability of production (R.):

where n is the amount of profit from the sale of products; 3 - the amount of production costs and sales of products. If the amount of costs should be replaced with its separate elements, the final model as a result of the transformation will acquire the following form:

The cost of one tonne-kilometer depends on the cost of maintaining the maintenance and operation of the car (3) and on its average annual production (GW). The source model of this system will look at: with TKM. = 3 / GW. Considering that the average annual production of the car in turn depends on the number of days spent by one car over the year (E) Duration of shift (P) and mid-hour production (CV), We can significantly lengthen this model and decompose the cost gain for a larger number of factors:

The expansion method provides for expanding the original factor model by multiplying the numerator and denominator of the fraction on one or more new indicators. For example, if in the original model

enter a new indicators, then the model will take the view

The result was the final multiplicative model in the form of a new set of factors.

This modeling method is very widely used in the analysis. For example, the average annual production of products with one employee (labor productivity indicator) can be written in this way: HB \u003d V / CR. If you enter such an indicator as the number of workers spent all employees (D.), We will get the following model of annual production:

where DV - Maternally generating; D - The number of days spent by one employee.

After introducing an indicator of the number of hours spent hours with all employees (d) we obtain a model with a new set of factors: Middle-hour development (CV), The number of days spent one employee (E) and the duration of the working day (s):

The reduction method is the creation of a new factor model by dividing the numerator and denominator of the fraction on the same indicator:

In this case, the ultimate model of the same type is obtained as the original, however, with another set of factors.

And again a practical example. As is known, the economic profitability of the enterprise is calculated by dividing the amount of the profit ( P) on the average annual value of the main and working capital of the enterprise (KL):

R \u003d.P / Kl.

If the numerator and denominator divide the sales volume (trade turnover), then we get a multiple model, but with a new set of factors: profitability of sales and capital-capacity products:

And one more example. Fondo studio (FD) is determined by the ratio of gross ( VP) or commercial products ( TP) to the average annual value of the main production facilities (OPF):

Sharing the numerator and denominator on the average annual number of workers (Czech), We obtain a more substantive multiple model with other factor indicators: the average annual production production of one workers (GW), characterizing the level of labor productivity, and labor frequency (FV):

It should be noted that in practice, several methods can be sequentially used to convert the same model. For example:

where Pho - Fondo studio; RP - sales of sales (revenue); C - the cost of realized products; P- profit; OPF - sub-annual value of the main production assets; OS - The average remains of working capital.

In this case, to convert the source factor model, which is built on mathematical dependencies, extension and expansion methods are used. The result was a more substantive model, which has a greater informative value, as it takes into account the causal relations between the indicators. The resulting final model allows you to investigate how the profitability of fixed assets of production, the ratio between the main and working facilities affect the profanation, and the coefficient of working capital turnover.

Thus, the resulting indicators can be decomposed on the component elements (factors) in various ways and are presented in the form of various types of deterministic models. The choice of modeling method depends on the object of the study, the goal, as well as from professional knowledge and skills of the researcher.

The process of modeling factor systems is a very complex and responsible moment in AHD. From how real and precisely created models reflect the relationship between the test indicators, the final results of the analysis depend on.