Diagram of gender and age structure. Age pyramids: types and types of age structures. What is the “load of able-bodied citizens”

The age structure is described using groupings and relative indicators. Most often, the age groups are one-year and five-year-old, but depending on the purposes of the analysis, other groupings are possible.

With one-year grouping, people of the same age or year of birth are combined into one group. The distribution of people into one-year age groups provides the best opportunities for analyzing the state and changes in the age structure. However, data on the age structure in the one-year group are subject to the deforming influence of such a phenomenon as age accumulation. Many people do not attach much importance to the accuracy of their age, and in the past many did not know their exact age, so they indicated it approximately in the census, with rounding.

To analyze the sex and age composition, a graphical method is also used. In the latter, sex-age pyramids are especially often used, which are a graphical representation of the distribution of the population by age and sex. Typically, pyramids are built according to one-year or five-year age groups. An age-sex pyramid is a diagram in which the number (or proportion of the population) of people of each age is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. Age groups are plotted along the ordinate axis, and the number or proportion of the population of the corresponding age is plotted along the abscissa axis. From the ordinate axis, scale bars are laid in two directions - to the left for men, to the right for women. Based on the characteristics of the age-sex pyramid, protrusions or deformations of its segments, one can judge the influence of fertility and mortality processes on the age structure of the population over many decades, as well as future trends in population reproduction and possible prospects for changes in its size. Let's take a look at the example (Figure 2.2):

Figure 2.2 Age and sex pyramid of Russia according to the 2002 and 1989 censuses

Analyzing this age-sex pyramid, we can draw the following conclusion: at birth, the proportion of boys and girls is approximately equal, and by older age (pensioners), the number of women increases.

Unlike fertility, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and the general shape of its configuration. The gender disproportion is clearly noticeable only at older ages. At the age of over 35 years, the numerical superiority of women is already noticeable.

The modern gender and age pyramid of the population of Russia was formed under the influence of two groups of factors: evolutionary changes as a consequence of a natural decrease in mortality and fertility in the process of demographic transition and perturbation effects associated with economic and social upheavals, which were so rich in the history of Russia in the twentieth century. If there were no such perturbative influences, the contour of the pyramid would change gradually, reflecting the process of population aging typical for the period of demographic transition: the base of the pyramid would become increasingly narrow, its upper part would become increasingly wider, the ratio of the male and female parts of the pyramid would not undergo large changes. changes, and its edges would remain smooth.

Figure 2.3 Sex and age pyramid of Russia, 2009

In fact, the Russian gender and age pyramid in the second half of the twentieth century was characterized by deformed, torn edges and very strong asymmetry of the male and female parts of the pyramid. This is precisely where the effect of the perturbative factors of Russian history was reflected.

Although the consequences of the most severe social catastrophes that occurred in the first half of the twentieth century are gradually “forgotten” by the age-sex pyramid, their traces are still very noticeable on the 2002 pyramid, where the consequences of the social upheavals of the 1990s were added to them. A comparison of the pyramids of 1989 and 2002 allows us to judge the general nature of changes in the age and sex composition of the Russian population over the last intercensal period.

It is also true that in Russia, unfortunately, the male “super-mortality rate” in working ages is very high. However, the interpretation of the huge “female advantage” as a consequence of the economic and political reforms of the 90s has nothing to do with reality. Over the past decade, the sex ratio in the Russian population has become better, not worse.

The main reason for the Russian “female advantage” is the Second World War and the associated huge losses of male generations. Naturally, as the war recedes into the past, the sex ratio levels out.

Thus, an improvement in the sex ratio in older ages is clear evidence that the influence of social upheavals and, above all, wars on this ratio is losing its significance. In middle age, the unfavorable ratio is undoubtedly a consequence of the excess mortality of men in peacetime. However, it is precisely this ratio that has not changed or changed slightly over the past ten years (in the city it has improved slightly, in the countryside it has worsened slightly), which once again indicates the compensatory nature of the dynamics of mortality rates during this period.

For more detailed information on the age-sex structure and changes in age-sex pyramids (see Appendix 2).

When analyzing the age-sex pyramid, it is possible to determine the type of age structure of the population of a territory or settlement. There are usually three types of population age structures:

· young population - a wide base of the pyramid, sharply tapering upward - a progressive type of age structure (Fig. 2.a);
· aged population - the pyramid narrows gradually from the base and only sharply at the top, in fact it has the shape of a trapezoid or even a rectangle - a stationary type of age structure of the population (Fig. 2.b);
· very old declining population - the pyramid expands from the base upward and only at the top (in the oldest age groups) sharply narrows - a regressive type of age structure of the population (Fig. 2.c).

In accordance with three types of age structure, population reproduction modes can be distinguished:

· expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is growing rapidly (typical of most modern developing countries of the world);
· simple reproduction - in subsequent generations there are approximately the same number of people as in previous ones; the population size, as a rule, remains almost unchanged (typical of some developing and developed countries);
· narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; The population is declining (typical for most developed European countries, including Russia).

Correspondence between the reproduction regime and population dynamics will be observed in a specific territory in the absence of significant external migration flows. With intensive emigration (departure of the population), the number may decrease even with expanded reproduction. With significant immigration (arrival), the population, on the contrary, can grow even with reduced reproduction.

Also, quite important is the calculation of the demographic burden (the ratio of the working population, on the one hand, and the non-working (children and old people) on the other). Let's take a look at the dependency ratio (Table 2.3):

Table 2.3 Dependency ratio

To dem.load = LNV/ S * 1000, %

where: LNV - number of people of disabled age;

S - population size.

To dem.load2002 = 591/943*1000 = 626.7%o

To dem.load2001 = 604/947*1000 = 637.8%o

To dem.heat2002m.t.v. = 368/943 * 1000 =388.6%o

To dem.heat2001m.t.v. = 323/947 * 1000 = 341.08%o

To dem.heat2002s.t.v. = 317/943*1000 = 336.2%o

To dem.heat2001s.t.v = 321/947 * 1000 =338.97%o

To analyze the age, or more precisely sex and age, structure of the population, one of the graphical methods called the sex and age pyramid is widely used. The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided strip diagram constructed in a conventional coordinate system. The ordinate axis displays a scale of age groups on an arbitrary scale, and the abscissa axis shows the population size of a certain age. The size of the male population is plotted to the left of the ordinate axis, the size of the female population is to the right. Each age group is displayed as a horizontal bar, the area of which is proportional to the population size of the corresponding age.

Age pyramids are built either in one-year age groups or in five-year groups. Preferable, of course, are one-year-old pyramids; they are much more expressive and informative than five-year-old ones (but taking into account age accumulation).

Age pyramids are constructed either using absolute or relative data on the size of age groups. Absolute data is simply the arithmetic number of people within each age group. Age pyramids constructed using absolute data have the serious drawback that they are not comparable if the population sizes reflected by these pyramids differ significantly from each other. Therefore, it is preferable to build age pyramids using relative data. In this case, any population size is taken as one constant value, say 100, 1000 or 10,000 (the latter is most preferable), and the size of each sex and age group is divided by the total population and multiplied by the above multiplier in the form of a one followed by several zeros. Then we get pyramids that are comparable for any population, regardless of their size.

The diagram thus obtained was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. Currently, in countries with low birth rates, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not resemble a pyramid, but rather some kind of inverted urn.

A sharp drop in the birth rate forms a corresponding depression in the age structure, which will be deeper, the more significant the reduction in the number of births. And this depression will never level out; it will gape for a hundred years, until everyone born in the years in which this depression occurred dies. On the contrary, a sharp increase in the birth rate forms a protrusion on the pyramid, which is larger, the greater the increase in the birth rate (number of births). The alternation of rises and falls in the birth rate as a result of any social cataclysms causes so-called “demographic waves” in the age structure (pyramid), repeating with a lag of 20-30 years (when those born during the period of one wave - recession or rise - become parents and their children create new waves that gradually die out over almost 100 years).

The age-sex pyramid also allows us to judge the impact of various historical events on the reproduction of the population: wars, epidemics, revolutions, certain legislative acts and other actions that can in one way or another influence the processes of fertility and mortality.

Back at the end of the 19th century. Swedish demographer A.-G. Sundberg (A.-G. Sundberg) introduced into scientific use the concept of progressive, stationary and regressive types of age structure. They were named so because with a progressive age structure the population increases, and quite quickly, with a stationary structure it does not change its numbers, and with a regressive age structure it decreases.

They differ from each other in the proportions of children aged 0-15 years and “old people” aged 50 years and older. In the progressive age structure, the share of children is, according to Sundberg, 40%, and “old people” - 10%, in the stationary age structure, respectively - 27 and 23, and in the regressive - 20 and 30%.

These types of age structure correspond to the types of age pyramids proposed in the 1930s. German statistician F. Burgdorfer. The progressive age structure (young population) corresponds to a regular pyramid. A diagram depicting a stationary age structure resembles a bell. The regressive age structure corresponds to a figure called an urn.

The above can be illustrated using the example of age-sex pyramids of the Russian population.

1. Type of population reproduction, characterized by high birth and death rates. The age pyramid of such a population has a wide base (which is formed by a high proportion of children in the population) and a narrow spire-shaped top (a small proportion of those living to old age). The sides of such a pyramid look like concave parabolas. This type of population reproduction can be called “primitive” (in many respects, and not only demographic ones, this name is quite suitable for it). In our country, the primitive type of reproduction persisted until the Second World War.

2. Industrial and social development of society also has among its results a reduction in mortality and birth rates (the reasons for such changes are discussed in the relevant chapters). Population growth slows and eventually stops. The age structure takes the shape of a bell. This type can be called motionless, or stationary. Scientists debate whether this type of reproduction can exist for a long time, or whether this state is possible only for a short time, followed by an inevitable transition to the third type of reproduction.

3. Further development, under certain conditions, leads to a state where the decline in mortality slows down or stops (mortality, alas, cannot decrease indefinitely), while the decline in fertility continues. Depopulation and population extinction begin. The age structure takes the form of a funerary urn. The population is aging, i.e. the proportion of elderly people in its composition is increasing and the proportion of young people is decreasing. This type of population reproduction can be called regressive, or depopulation, or degradation.

Pyramids for 1939 (1939 population census), for 2000 (data from the State Statistics Committee of the Russian Federation) and for 2050 (UN forecast 1998, low version). The first of these pyramids is that of a typical young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining death rate. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, even on this pyramid, deformations caused by acute events in Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable. First of all, the “pit”, located in the area of ages from 15 to 25 years, attracts attention. This “pit” is the result of a decrease in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the subsequent Civil War. These events also left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age of 35 years (especially in the age group 35-39 years). A rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of population losses from military operations, epidemics and other unfavorable events of that time. The diagram also reflected a compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (protrusion at the age level of 10-15 years), some of its growth in connection with the ban on abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp decline in the early 1930s. in general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young population with a high birth rate and a high but decreasing mortality rate.

A completely different picture emerges when looking at the age-sex pyramid of 2000. Traces of a decline in fertility in the early 1930s. and during the Great Patriotic War they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and were smoothed out to some extent. But the pyramid clearly reflects the process of evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively “calm” conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes in these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined solely by the restructuring of demographic behavior.

It was during this period “without hindrance” that the action of global factors unfolded, which in their totality determined the inevitable offensive already in the 1990s. demographic collapse that our country is experiencing. Four stages of Russia's demographic evolution in the post-war years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the early 1960s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high in these years. Then a “hole” is clearly visible on the pyramid, which coincides with the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and fertility in the 1960s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the need of most families for children, which occurred against the background of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 1970s - the first half of the 1980s. The number of births during this period grew mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the bars of the diagram corresponding to these years.

And finally, the bottom of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and continued in the 1990s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid is continuously narrowing. Its shape is becoming more and more like a pyramid type, corresponding to a regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 2000 clearly indicates that our country has entered a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the exit from which is becoming more and more problematic.

We see before us an old and dying population, the shape of whose age-sex pyramid really resembles a funeral urn. At the same time, the authors of the forecast are actually very optimistic in their predictions. They are based on overestimates of future fertility trends in Russia. According to the lower version of the forecast, the birth rate starting from 2000-2005. will be fixed at the level of 1.25 children per 1 woman of reproductive age and will remain so until the end of the forecast period, i.e. until 2050

An age-sex pyramid is a graphical representation of the distribution of people by their gender and age at some point in time. This is a two-sided chart in which the number of people of each age and sex (or their proportion of the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of the same scale. The stripes are located one above the other in increasing order of age (usually from 1 to 100 years), on the left for men, on the right for women. Age-sex pyramids are constructed based on census and survey data. The area of the steps of the pyramids corresponds to the number of people of a given age and gender or their share in the population (while the length of the step corresponds to the density of a given age group - the number of people per unit of age).

When analyzing the pyramid, 2 points are taken into account: Tikhomirova N.P. Demography. Methods of analysis and forecasting. Textbook manual for universities. - M.: Exam, 2205. - 256 p.

1. Comparison pyramid shapes in countries with different demographic regimes . For example, in developing countries, the base of the pyramid is wider as children and youth account for a significant portion of the total population compared to adults and older adults. In developed countries, on the contrary, the base of the pyramid is narrowing, as there is a gradual redistribution of the population in favor of older ages (population aging). In the absence of migration, the shape of the age-sex pyramid depends on fertility and mortality trends.
2. Analysis of the details of the age pyramid: small and numerous generations . The influence of demographic processes (fertility, mortality and migration) on the shape of the age pyramid:
1) The birth rate of some generations may be lower compared to neighboring generations already at birth. For a decrease in the number of births to affect the shape of the pyramid, it must be short-lived, otherwise a “failure” will not appear on the pyramid.
- the number of children born may be affected by a decrease in the birth rate. In some years, women have fewer children on average.
- the number of children born can also be affected by the age structure of potential mothers (in some years there are relatively fewer women in young reproductive ages) or their marriage structure (the number of married potential mothers decreases).
2) Mortality of the Epidemic, death in war of men of military age;
3) Migration

The composition of the population by gender is usually considered together with the age composition as the age-sex composition of the population. This is advisable to do because of the differences in age-specific mortality between men and women. For every 100 girls born in Russia, an average of 105-106 boys are born; it is a biological constant among those born alive. It can be expressed in another way - for every 1000 newborns, there are on average 512 boys and 488 girls. There are certain patterns in the sex of a born child depending on the marital status, age, and living conditions of his parents, especially his mother. Parents who are officially married have more boys, while illegitimate children have more girls. The older the mother and the higher the serial number of births, the lower the proportion of boys among those born. That is, older mothers' youngest children, as a rule, are girls. During periods of difficult living conditions (war, economic crises, etc.) more girls are born. After leaving these difficult living conditions, more boys were born among those born. This is explained by the conditions of gestation and gender differences in intrauterine mortality. It is also necessary to take into account that the biological resistance of men (boys) is lower than that of women (girls); The mortality rate of male embryos and fetuses is also higher, this is especially acutely felt during difficult periods in the life of the country and family. The behavioral factor of the population also affects the sex ratio of newborns. At the end of the 20th century, the practice of prenatal diagnosis of the sex of an unborn child appeared and expanded. The desire of parents to have a child of a certain gender and the use of prenatal diagnostics to a certain extent contribute to the increase in the frequency of induced terminations of pregnancy (abortions). Due to the mortality of men, by adulthood the ratio of men and women is gradually leveling out, and at older ages the number of men is significantly less than women. Russian statistical yearbook. 2005: Stat. Sat. / Rosstat, 71с.

In 1894, the Swedish statistician and demographer A.-G. Sundberg proposed to distinguish three types of age structures of the population: progressive, stationary and regressive.

· The progressive type is characterized by a high proportion of children and a low proportion of Medkov V.M. Demography. Textbook for universities: additional. m-vom of images. RF.-M.: INFRA-M, 2005, 92 p.. of the older generation in the entire population. Its formation is based on an expanded type of reproduction. The age pyramid has the shape of a triangle, the base of which depends on the birth rate.
· In the stationary type, which is based on a simple type of reproduction, the age pyramid has the shape of a bell with an almost balanced proportion of children and old age groups.
· A narrowed type of reproduction leads to the formation of a regressive type, the age pyramid of which has the shape of an urn. It is characterized by a relatively high proportion of elderly and old people and a low proportion of children.

population gender male female

In accordance with three types of age structure, population reproduction modes can be distinguished: Andreev E., Vishnevsky A., etc. Weekly "Demoscope Weekly" // Russian gender and age pyramid. No. 215 - 216 from September 26 - October 9, 2005, 479 pp..

· expanded reproduction - in each next generation there are more people than in the previous one: the population is growing rapidly (typical of most modern developing countries of the world);
· simple reproduction - in subsequent generations there are approximately the same number of people as in previous ones; the population size, as a rule, remains almost unchanged (typical of some developing and developed countries);
· narrowed reproduction - there are fewer people in subsequent generations than in previous ones; The population is declining (typical for most developed European countries, including Russia).

from Greek pyramidis - polyhedron) - English. pyramid, age-sex; German Alterspyramide. A graphical representation of the distribution of people by age and gender in the form of a two-way graph, in which the number of people of each age and gender (or their share in the population) is depicted by a horizontal bar of a certain scale.

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graphical distribution of the population by age and gender. It is a two-way directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender, or their proportion in the population, is depicted as a horizontal bar of a certain scale. The stripes are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age, on the left for men, on the right for women. It is usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups. Since there tend to be fewer people in older age groups due to mortality, the full diagram is shaped like a pyramid. The pyramid depicts the age-sex structure of the population at one time or another.

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AGE (AGE AND SEX) PYRAMID

The stripes are arranged one above the other in order of increasing age, on the left for men, on the right for women. It is usually built according to one-year or five-year age groups. Since there tend to be fewer people in older age groups due to mortality, the full diagram is shaped like a pyramid. The pyramid depicts the age-sex structure of the population at one time or another.

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AGE PYRAMID

a demography term meaning a graph (histogram) illustrating the age and sex distribution of a population. The vertical axis, starting at age 0, plots age in one- or five-year age intervals. The last age interval is usually open. The horizontal axis shows either the population size of the corresponding age group, or its share (as a percentage) in the entire population or in the population of a given gender. In this case, the male population is always depicted to the left of the age axis, and the female population to the right. The resulting figure (“pyramid”) clearly depicts the characteristics of the age and sex structure of the population, as well as the history of its changes over a long time.

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Age pyramid

age pyramid, age-sex pyramid) is a method of graphically depicting the distribution of the population by age and gender. An age pyramid is a two-sided directional chart in which the number of people of each age and gender (or their proportion of the population) is depicted as a horizontal bar of the same scale. The bars are arranged sequentially one above the other as age increases (from 0 to 100 years), with the male population shown on the left and the female population on the right. The decrease in population size with age due to mortality leads to the fact that the area of each subsequent stripe is smaller than the previous one, which creates the visual effect of a pyramid. The exception is cases when the population in any age interval is subject to excessive reduction due to extreme factors of mortality (war) or migration. The width of the base of the age pyramid depends entirely on the birth rate (number of births) in the corresponding years, as well as on changes in infant mortality rates. The age pyramid is built according to census data or special surveys for one-year or 5-year age groups, so it represents a static state of the population that has developed as a result of the continuous process of population reproduction. Thus, comparing the sizes of the corresponding age groups of people of one sex or another makes it possible to describe the evolution of fertility and mortality over a long period of time, to identify periods of normal, evolutionary development, as well as periods of crisis, to trace the movement of demographic waves formed as a result of sharp changes in intensity fertility and mortality. On the age pyramid of the population of territories with high migration intensity, calendar periods of time of increase and decrease in the inflow and outflow of the population are clearly visible. The ratio of individual age groups allows us to assess the direction and scale of the influence of existing age proportions on the prospects for reproduction and population growth. In 1894, the Swedish demographer A.-G. Sundberg introduced the concept of types of age structure of the population, differing in the proportions of children (0-15 years) and old people (60 years and older): progressive (children - 40%, old people - 10%), stationary (27% and 23%, respectively), regressive (20% and 30%, respectively). In the early 1930s, the German demographer F. Burgderfer proposed the corresponding types of age pyramid: in the young (progressive) population it has the shape of a regular pyramid, in the aged (stationary) population it has the shape of a bell, in the old (regressive) population it has the shape of an urn. If the population itself and the population reproduction regime were not exposed to extreme external factors for a long time, then the age pyramid has relatively smooth boundaries with smooth transitions from one age group to another. Significant disturbances in the intensity of population reproduction, for example, a fall in the birth rate and an increase in mortality, significant human losses during wars, famines, epidemics, etc., mass emigration or immigration create fluctuations in the number of individual age groups; the sides of the pyramid become uneven, and the depth of the gaps and the length of the protrusions corresponding to certain age groups show in what years and to what extent the evolutionary order of population formation was disrupted. O. ZAKHAROVA

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AGE PYRAMID

AGE PYRAMID, age pyramid, age-sex pyramid, graphic. image of the distribution of people by age and gender. It is a two-way directional diagram showing the number of people of each age and gender or their share in us. depicted by a horizontal stripe. scale. The stripes are located one above the other in order of increasing age values, usually from 0 to 100 years, on the left for men, on the right for women. Because the number of people tends to be smaller due to mortality at older ages, the image for the full set of ages is shaped like a pyramid.

V. p. is usually built according to data from censuses or surveys of us. by one-year or 5-year age groups so that the area of the steps of the pyramid corresponds to the number of people (thousands) of each age and gender or, when making comparisons, their share in us. (%). The length of the step corresponds to the density of a given age group, i.e., the number of people per unit of age. If the initial data on the age structure are presented in unequal age intervals, then for larger groups the length of the steps of the senior age is determined by dividing the number of people in the group by the length of the interval, expressed in age units accepted for the entire senior age. Thus, when constructing the V. item for 5-year groups of numbers. The 6-year age group should be divided into 6/8, and the 10-year age group into 2. If the older age group includes people, for example, 70 years and older, then this interval is considered to extend to 100 years, i.e. . is equal to 30 years, but for every 5 years it does not depict cf. density (which can be obtained by dividing the number of groups by 6), and uniformly decreases to zero by the age of 100 years. V.p. depicts the age and gender structure of us. at one time or another, i.e., it records a certain state during the continuous process of population reproduction. Compare. The length of the steps from the oldest ages (people born long ago) to the youngest (those born recently) gives an idea of the influence on our age composition. processes of fertility and mortality over time. time, as well as the impact of the current age composition on our growth prospects. In the beginning. 1930s the concept of three types of age structure of the population was introduced, the Crimea corresponds to the forms of V. p.: in the young us. it has the shape of a regular pyramid, as we have aged. - the shape of a bell, in the very old - the shape of an urn (see Fig. 1), and, other things being equal, determines the rapid growth, slow growth or decline of us.

If us. and the population reproduction regime, i.e., birth and death rates, were not experienced by s.-l. ext. disturbing influences, then V. has relatively smooth edges, and with long-lasting high levels of fertility and relatively high levels of mortality, it has a wide base and a narrow top (for example, the population of Mexico, see Fig. 2), and at low levels fertility and mortality - a narrow base and a wide top (for example, the population of Sweden, see Fig. 3). These two V. items correspond to the types of age structure of a growing and almost stationary population, and the second clearly reflects the process of aging of the population, and in addition, a decrease in the birth rate in the 30s and 40s. 20th century and ´demographic. echo of this phenomenon. Distribution of us. shown in Fig. 2 and 3 as a percentage, and therefore V. items are completely comparable, although us. Mexico in 1970 was 48 million, and us. Sweden - 8 million

Under the influence of violations in number. and the age structure of us. or in the intensity of its reproduction, caused, for example, by war, leading to a drop in the birth rate and a decline in men of conscription age, or constant immigration, which usually increases the number of men of working age, the edges of the military sector become uneven, on them previous changes in the nature of our growth and loss are reflected. Such violations leave traces in our age structure for a long time.

For example, on V. p. us. GDR as of December 31, 1970 (see Fig. 4) clearly visible traces of a sharp decline in the birth rate and resp. numbers born during the 1st World War 1914-18 (1) during the years of the economy, the crisis of 1929-33 in the pre-war. Germany (3) and during the 2nd World War 1939-45, unleashed by Nazi Germany (4), as well as traces of the losses of adult men in the military. years (2). The “preponderance” of the number of women over the number of men over the age of 70 is caused not only by the death of men during the war, but also by their higher mortality in peacetime. The “demographic echo” of the decline in fertility can be traced across generations: smaller generations born in 1930-33 (at the end of 1970 they were aged 37-40 years), having reached reproductive age, gave birth to relatively fewer children (at the end of 1970 these children was 11-15 years old) than neighboring generations. More means. The flaw is shown by the generations born in 1941-46 (at the end of 1970 they were 23-28 years old): the narrowing base of the pyramid (ages 0-5 years) is a consequence of the small number of births to a small number of parents belonging to these generations (5). The “preponderance” of the number of men at younger ages is explained by the predominance of male children. gender among births (see Sex ratio). This advantage persists until almost 40 years of age, despite the higher mortality rate among men. Thus, the analysis of V. makes it possible to clearly characterize the sources of deformations in the age structure of us.

Rice. 4. Age pyramid of the population of the GDR as of December 31, 1970: 1 - shortage of births in 1914-1918; 2 - military losses of men in 1939-1945; 3 - shortage of births in 1929-1933; 4 - shortage of births in 1939-1945; 5 - “demographic echo” of the shortage of births in 1939-1945.

V.p. superimposed on each other according to two censuses of us. (the difference in the length of each stage should be clearly indicated) show shifts in the age-sex structure, caused by the fact that in different years different generations are at the same ages, the number of which can also be different. For example... V. p. us. USSR for 1926 and 1970 (see Fig. 5) illustrate the war-caused disturbances in the sex ratio and the decline in the birth rate during the war. years and their consequences in the beginning. 70s Thus, V. makes the demographic forecast easier. It is indicative to compare vertical structures also in space, for example, pyramids for mountains. and sat down. us.: in the village. The area is dominated by children and the elderly, and in the mountains. settlements - us, of working age. V. n, also help to assess the accuracy of census data on age. For example, the extremely long steps of the pyramid at round ages in us. Mexico (see Fig. 2) and too short at adjacent ages indicate that. age-related accumulation.

For the purpose of analysis, V. p. dept. groups of us. - migrants, people with occupations, dept. ethnic groups or us. dept. regions.

V.p. are also used in the study of reproduction. using demographic models. Comparing the outlines of V, p. of the real us. and stationary population or stable population accordingly. reproduction modes, one can clearly imagine the nature of the influence of modern. fertility and mortality levels by age, sex composition and numbers. real us. Such an analysis, directed to the past, helps to capture the stages of transition from one mode of reproduction to another, to establish the time of such a transition in different countries and in different eras.

V. p. for the future allow you to see the differences. demographic options forecasts as for dep. countries, and for groups of countries (for example, economically developed and developing), as well as the world as a whole. Futurologists often resort to the image of V. p. to compare the prospects for changes in the age and sex composition of us. countries with “young” and “old” us. until reaching a state of stationarity.

Excellent definition

Incomplete definition ↓

To visually and jointly represent the age and sex structures of the population, so-called age-sex pyramids.

The age-sex pyramid is a two-sided bar chart of the combined distribution of the population by sex and age, with the female population on one side (right) and the male population on the other side (left). The vertical axis of the chart represents the age scale, expressed in one- or five-year intervals, ranging from 0 years to the age limit or open age interval.

Horizontal stripes represent:

or the total population of a given sex and age;
or the share of the population of a given sex and age in the total

population;

Or the share of the population of a given sex and age in the population of only a given sex.

In this case, the area of horizontal stripes (or their length in the case of equal age intervals) is proportional to the named indicators.

For the purpose of comparing different populations and obtaining comparable information about their age-sex structure, pyramids are built using either the numbers of age-sex groups or the shares of these numbers in the total population.

The diagram thus obtained was at one time called a pyramid for the simple reason that, due to the influence of mortality, the number of persons in older ages is usually less than in younger ones. At least, this was the case in those years when this tool for visually representing the age-sex structure of the population was proposed. At present, in countries with low birth rates, the shape of the population distribution diagram by sex and age does not at all resemble a pyramid, but rather some kind of inverted urn.

The age-sex pyramid depicts the state of the population at any point in time (at the time of the census or on January 1), i.e. in essence, it is like a stop in the continuous process of population reproduction. Therefore, based on the comparative length of the stripes, one can judge the influence of fertility and mortality processes on the age structure of the population (over many decades), as well as future trends in population reproduction and possible prospects for changes in its size.

If, for example, in a certain year or period of time the number of births differs noticeably in one direction or another from neighboring years, then on the age-sex pyramid this will be reflected in the form of either a protrusion (if the number of births is greater than in neighboring years) or a dip (if this number is correspondingly smaller). This deformation, passing through increasingly older ages, will persist for almost an entire century, until this population of those born becomes extinct. And it (deformation) will influence both demographic phenomena and phenomena of a completely different type, changing in waves, for example, the number of births, mortality, demand for certain goods and services, etc. and so on.

The age-sex pyramid is similar to real pyramids, since as age increases, the number of people in age groups decreases and the stripes become shorter. The age structure of an ideal population, in which fertility and mortality would remain unchanged for a long time, would have the form of an almost isosceles triangle with straight sides (but still with some skew to the right, i.e. towards the “female half”). However, this does not happen, because both the number of births and the number of deaths fluctuates over time, sometimes very sharply.

Borisov V.L.

M., 2003. P. 980-99.

With the help of age-sex pyramids, other demographic and socio-economic phenomena can be studied. Thus, demographers build pyramids based on gender, age and marital status. Economic and demographic age-sex pyramids are widely known, used to analyze economic activity by age and measure the balance of production and consumption by generation.

There are wide possibilities for using age-sex pyramids in sociology. They can be built for almost any social process of interest to a sociologist, combining age, gender and indicators of the intensity of a particular type of social behavior.

Below (graphs 3.9 - 3.12), as an example, the pyramids are shown for 1939 (data from the All-Union Population Census of 1939), for 1946 (according to E.M. Andreev and co-authors), for 2002 (data from the All-Russian Census population 2002) and for 2050 (UN forecast 2004, lower version). The appearance of these pyramids and their differences from each other clearly illustrate the influence of various events, both demographic and any other, on the population and its age structure.

The first of these pyramids is that of a typical young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but declining death rate. The length of the stripes decreases relatively evenly, however, even on this pyramid, deformations caused by acute events in Russian history at the beginning of the 20th century are already noticeable. First of all, attention is drawn to the “pit”, located

Chart 3.9

Age and sex pyramid of the Russian population, 1939

Year of birth

Chart 3.10

Age and sex pyramid of the Russian population in 1946 Source: Andreev E.M., Dareniy L.E., Kharkova T.L. Demographic history of Russia, 1927-1959. M„ 1998. P. 139.

placed in the age range from 15 to 25 years. This “pit” is the result of a decrease in the birth rate during the First World War, the 1917 revolution and the subsequent Civil War. These events also left their mark on the population, which in 1939 crossed the age of 35 years (especially in the age group 35-39 years).

A rather sharp narrowing of the pyramid in these segments is a consequence of population losses from military operations, epidemics and other unfavorable events of that time. The diagram also reflected a compensatory increase in the birth rate in the 1920s. (protrusion at the age level of 10-15 years), some of its growth in connection with the ban on abortion in 1936, as well as its sharp decline in the early 1930s, due, without a doubt, to those socio-economic and political events , which occurred in the country at that time, primarily the famine of 1930-33, caused by the so-called

(thousand people)

Chart 3.11

Age and sex pyramid of the Russian population according to the 2002 All-Russian Census. Source: Official website of the All-Russian Population Census 2002 http://www.perepis2002.ru

ooooooooooo ooooooooo Yu01L0Yu01/>01L ChG? "G SO CO CsJ CvJ -CH -I

90-94
85-89
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14

Chart 3.12

Age and sex structure of the Russian population. 2050 UN forecast revision 2004 Lower version Source: World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. Population Database // Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision, (http://esa.un.org/unpp). The pyramid was built using the PYRAMID spreadsheet from the PAS (Population Analysis Spreadsheets) spreadsheet package developed by the International Software Center of the US Bureau of Census ( http://www.census.gov/ipc). See also: Arriaga E.A. Population Analysis with Microcomputers. Vol. I. Presentation of Techniques. November 1994. Vol. II. Software and Documentation).

collectivization of agriculture, as well as the beginning of Stalinist repressions. In general, the age-sex pyramid of 1939 is a portrait of a young, growing population with a high birth rate and a relatively high but decreasing mortality rate.

In the 1946 pyramid, taken from the book by E.M. Andreeva et al., the scale used was not age, but the year of birth of various cohorts (generations). This was done in order to more clearly imagine the tragic consequences of the Great Patriotic War of 1941-45, which, according to recent estimates, claimed almost thirty million lives. Although the general appearance of the pyramid generally follows the contours of the 1939 pyramid, it clearly shows that the male generations born in 1910-25 suffered the most during the war. This, in addition to the tragedy in itself of the death of huge masses of young people during hostilities, gave rise to many acute consequences, both demographically (an increase in out-of-wedlock births, a shortage of grooms in the post-war years), and others.

The 1959 pyramid shows deep gaps in the numbers of those born in 1916-1918. (First World War and Civil War), their slight increase in 1919, then growth until 1929 and a sharp failure in 1930-1935... Then a deep failure in 1940-1944, i.e. during the years of the most difficult war. It is important to note the still relatively wide and expanding base of the pyramid, which indicates a relatively high birth rate during this period. ... You can easily notice the numerical superiority of women, especially at ages over 30. Unlike fertility, the fall of which manifests itself in the age structure in the form of depressions, mortality leaves a mark on the pyramid only in the form of gender disproportion and the general shape of its configuration.

Borisov V.A. Demography: Textbook for universities. Ed. 3rd.

M., 2003. P. 103.

The picture that emerges when looking at the 2002 age-sex pyramid (Graph 3.11) is completely different, unlike either the 1939 pyramid or the 1959 pyramid, as described in the above box.

Traces of falling birth rates in the early 1930s. and during the Great Patriotic War, as well as the consequences of the tragic events of 1930-1940, they moved to the upper segments of the pyramid and were smoothed out to some extent. But the pyramid clearly reflects the process of evolution of the birth rate in Russia in the post-war period. This is the time of modern demographic history of Russia, when the country lived in relatively “calm” conditions, without wars, mass repressions, epidemics and other catastrophic phenomena. Demographic changes in these years were of an evolutionary nature and were determined exclusively by the restructuring of demographic, primarily reproductive, behavior.

It was during this period “without hindrance” that the action of global factors unfolded, which in their totality determined the inevitable offensive already in the 1990s. demographic collapse experienced by the country. Four stages of Russia's demographic evolution in the post-war years are clearly visible. The first of them is the time before the early 1960s, when the birth rate was practically stable, and fluctuations in the number of births were determined mainly by the influence of changes in the age structure of women of reproductive age. The need for children and the reproductive attitudes of the majority of the population were still relatively high in these years. Then a “hole” is clearly visible on the pyramid, which coincides with the period of a sharp drop in the number of births and fertility in the 1960s. The reason for this decline was a radical decrease in the need of most families for children, which occurred against the background of a relative improvement in the standard of living of the population. The third stage is the 1970s - the first half of the 1980s. The number of births during this period grew, mainly under the influence of shifts in the age structure of the population and, in part, more complete satisfaction of the need for two children (in the first half of the 1980s), which was reflected in the lengthening of the bars of the diagram corresponding to these years.

And finally, the bottom of the pyramid shows a sharp, landslide drop in the number of births and fertility, which began in 1987 and continued in the 1990s. catastrophic forms. The base of the pyramid is continuously narrowing. Its shape is becoming more and more like a pyramid type, corresponding to a regressive type of population reproduction. The age-sex pyramid of 2002 clearly indicates that Russia has entered a period of deep and long-term depopulation, the exit from which is becoming more and more problematic. The slight increase in the numbers born after 2000, reflected in a slight lengthening of the stripes at the very bottom of the pyramid, is short-lived and should end no later than 2007.

The further evolution of the reproduction of the Russian population in the direction of a decrease in the birth rate, which will occur at an increasing pace, will determine that its age-sex structure will acquire by the middle of the 21st century. the type shown in graph 3.12, based on the 2004 UN forecast (lower version). We see before us an old and dying population, the shape of whose age-sex pyramid really resembles a funeral urn.

At the same time, the authors of the forecast are, in fact, overly optimistic in their predictions. A feature of the 2004 forecast is that it not only takes into account the larger initial population compared to the 2002 forecast (the 2002 census showed the population of Russia to be 1.8 million more people than was implied by calculations using the demographic balance equation) , but also proceeds from the fact of an increase in the number of births after 2000. Forecasters extended this purely statistical artifact of the UN to the entire forecast period. At the same time, the lower option should be considered closest to what will actually happen in the middle of the century, since it assumes a decrease in the birth rate in the period until 2015-20. from the current 1.33 to 1.01 and only then some increase to 1.35 - a fact that the authors of the forecast do not comment on. Demographic forecasts for Russia and the world are discussed in detail in Chap. TO). See also: Medkov V.M. Expected future or romantic dreams (almost random notes in connection with the release of the UN demographic forecast revision 2004) // http://www.demographia.ru